Dynegy v. Multiut Corp., Nachashon Draiman, N.D.Ill.,2008.

October 2, 2008 by yehudadraiman

Dynegy Marketing and Trade v. Multiut Corp., Nachashon Draiman

N.D.Ill.,2008.

Only the Westlaw citation is currently available.

United States District Court,N.D. Illinois,Eastern Division.

DYNEGY MARKETING AND TRADE, a Colorado Partnership, Plaintiff,

v.

MULTIUT CORPORATION, an Illinois Corporation, Nachshon Draiman, et al., Defendants.

No. 02 C 7446.

 

June 11, 2008.

 

Barry S. Hyman, Sharon A. Doherty, Schiff Hardin LLP, Chicago, IL, for Plaintiff.

Paul Thaddeus Fox, Howard Kevin Jeruchimowitz, Jeffrey Scott Torosian, Paul Alexis Del Aguila, Steven C. Coberly, Greenberg Traurig, LLP., Ronald Frank Labedz, AT&T Services, Inc., Chicago, IL, Alan Jay Mandel, Alan J. Mandel Ltd., Skokie, IL, for Defendants.

 

MEMORANDUM OPINION AND ORDER

 

JOHN A. NORDBERG, Senior District Judge.

*1 This is a dispute over payments for natural gas. Dynegy Marketing and Trade (“Dynegy”) alleges that Multiut Corporation (“Multiut”) failed to pay for natural gas delivered in 2000, 2001, and 2002. Count I is a claim for breach of the parties 1994 sales agreement and seeks $15,348,244.72 plus interest from Multiut. Count II seeks the same amount from Multiut and also from defendant Nachshon Draiman, the sole owner of Multiut, under a guaranty agreement. Dynegy now moves for summary judgment on these two counts.FN1It also moves for summary judgment on Multiut’s six counterclaims. These counterclaims, as well as several related affirmative defenses, allege generally that Dynegy’s invoices were inflated because they either failed to give Multiut price breaks allegedly agreed to in oral agreements or because they were based on an index price that Dynegy had manipulated by reporting false trades.

 

FN1. Dynegy has also filed several fraudulent transfer counts alleging that Draiman caused Multiut to transfer over $21 million to himself, his family, and related business entities and that most of this money came from the sale of gas delivered by Dynegy. But the present summary judgement motion does not address these counts.

 

FACTS

 

Multiut is an Illinois corporation with its principal place of business in Skokie, Illinois. Nachshon Draiman is the CEO and controlling shareholder. Dynegy is a Colorado general partnership with its principal place of business in Houston, Texas. Dynegy was formerly known as Natural Gas Clearinghouse or NGC.

 

In October 1995, Dynegy (then called NGC) and Multiut entered into the Natural Gas Sales Agreement. However, the agreement was dated January 1, and we will refer to it as the “1994 Agreement.” The parties entered into a similar agreement in 1988.

 

The 1994 agreement set forth the general terms and procedures that would govern the parties’ relationship. The agreement anticipated that Multiut would periodically nominate (i.e. make a request for) certain amounts of natural gas, expressed in the industry as a “therm.” Under the agreement, Multiut was obligated to pay for all quantities nominated and tendered for delivery.

 

The 1994 agreement was a general agreement in the sense that it did not set forth a single price or quantity to govern the specific nomination requests made throughout the parties’ relationship. Instead, the parties contemplated that they would agree to price and quantity terms as well as delivery dates in individual agreements during the course of their relationship. The 1994 Agreement included a form, Exhibit B, on which these agreements would be memorialized.

 

In nominating gas under the 1994 agreement, Multiut was acting as a middle man. It would purchase and secure gas as a whole from Dynegy and would then allocate it to individual customers pursuant to agreements negotiated by Multiut with no input from Dynegy. In fact, Dynegy was not aware of the identity of these customers. Multiut used different pricing methods for different customers. The options included shared savings, an index plus price, a fixed contract price, or a cost plus price. (Draiman Aff. ¶ 13.) “Index plus” meant that the customer would pay the published index price plus an agreed-upon additional fixed charge. The “cost plus” option meant that Multiut’s customers paid the same amount for the natural gas that Multiut paid to Dynegy plus an agreed-upon additional fixed charge. As Draiman explained in his deposition, the pricing was a “dynamic procedure which involved a number of people with various different pricing methods and purchasing methods.”(D Ex. 2 at 31-32.) FN2

 

FN2. D Ex. and M Ex. refer respectively to Dynegy’s and Multiut’s exhibits. DF refers to Dynegy’s statement of material facts, and MF refers to Multiut’s statement of additional facts.

 

*2 This lawsuit focuses on the period from 2001 to 2004. During that time Multiut nominated various amounts of natural gas, at prices agreed to by the parties at the time of nomination, and Dynegy delivered those amounts. In some cases, the specific agreements as to price and delivery were set forth on the form known as Exhibit B. In all cases, Dynegy also sent out a monthly invoice showing the total gas nominated and delivered to Multiut for the month.

 

It is undisputed that, within weeks of receiving these invoices, Joan Shultz at Multiut reviewed them to “make sure they were accurate.” Schultz was Multiut’s managing Director of Operations from 2001 to 2004 and was responsible for nominating the gas and managing the department. After Shultz verified the invoices, she sent them to Lenore Kamien, Multiut’s bookkeeper, who would book the payment. Kamien was “a perfectionist” and knew the exact amounts owed to Dynegy. (DF 15.) Draiman also confirmed that the invoices initialed by Schultz were accurate with respect to the volume of gas nominated and delivered and the prices agreed to by Multiut as set forth on the invoices. (DF 23.)

 

At some point, Multiut fell behind on its payments. A meeting was held on March 7, 2001, to determine Multiut’s outstanding balance. (DF 18.) Mark Ludwig and Ginger Wright attended on behalf of Dynegy, and Draiman and Kamien represented Multiut. (DF 18, 69.) At the meeting, Wright and Kamien reviewed Dynegy’s internal accounting records, Dynegy’s invoices, and Multiut’s internal accounting records and correspondence. Kamien agreed that, as of December 2000, Multiut owed Dynegy at least $1,620,178. (DF 19, 71.)

 

Turning to present dispute, Dynegy explains that it hired an expert to calculate the amounts Multiut currently owes under the 1994 agreement. Dynegy’s expert began his calculation with the $1,620,178 figure from above and (i) added in the amount of unpaid invoices, using only invoices that had been initialed by Schultz or her predecessor at Multiut, and (ii) subtracted the total payments made by Multiut since 2001, a figure based on cancelled checks produced by Multiut and Dynegy’s accounting records. (DF 21, 25.) Multiut did not depose Dynegy’s expert, nor submit a report of its own expert to challenge the calcuations of these amounts. In sum, Dynegy’s expert concluded that Multiut owes $13,693,943.18 in principal and $1,654,301.54 in interest as of October 1, 2004.

 

DISCUSSION

 

Based on the documents submitted by the parties, we find that no dispute exists that Multiut nominated and Dynegy then delivered the natural gas in the amounts and prices set forth on the invoices and other supporting documents, all as summarized by Dynegy’s expert. As Multiut agrees, no dispute exists about the arithmetic. The unpaid invoices and interest add up to $15,348,244.72, plus interest accruing from October 1, 2004. There is likewise no dispute that the parties agreed at the time to the particular prices set forth on those invoices.FN3

 

FN3. The parties agree that, if Multiut is liable under the breach of contract claim in Count I, then both Multiut and Draiman are also liable under the guaranty claim in Count II.

 

*3 In its counterclaims and related affirmative defenses, Multiut argues for the first time that the various amounts and prices it agreed to years before were inflated. It claims that it was unaware of this fact because it believed it could “trust” Dynegy. (Resp. at 3.) Multiut also asserts two counterclaims specifically relating to Nicor Energy, a subsidiary Dynegy formed that competed with Multiut. One counterclaim alleges that Dynegy employees learned confidential information from Multiut when the parties had discussions in 1998 about the possibility of Dynegy buying Multiut. The other is a Robinson-Patman Act claim alleging that Dynegy sold gas to Nicor on more favorable terms. Finally, looming over all the counterclaims is a broad allegation that Dynegy’s invoices should be reduced to reflect its alleged participation in manipulating the price of the natural gas indexes that were used, in some cases, to set the prices for sales to Multiut.

 

I. Breach of Contract Counterclaims.

 

Four of the six counterclaims allege that the parties entered into binding oral agreements.FN4To be enforceable, oral agreements must at least include an offer and acceptance, consideration, and definite and certain terms. Association Benefit Services, Inc. v. Caremark Rx, Inc., 493 F.3d 841, 849-850 (7th Cir.2007) (“No contract exists under Illinois law, and, indeed, under principles of general law, if the agreement lacks definite and certain terms; nor is a contract formed by an offer that itself lacks definite and certain material terms and does not require such terms to be supplied by acceptance.”). The requirement that the contract contain “definite and certain terms” means that, even if the parties intended to enter into an agreement, no contract exists if the court cannot figure out what are the essential terms.Id. at 850.

 

FN4. Because the parties evaluate these claims under Illinois law, we will do the same.

 

Although we address each counterclaim individually below, we note that they generally suffer from two primary problems. First, Multiut relies almost exclusively on its own unilateral “understanding” of vague conversations that took place many years ago, understandings that were never put in writing and that were never explicitly acknowledged by Dynegy. Second, for all but one of these counterclaims, Multiut has provided no evidence-either documents or an expert witness-to establish damages.

 

A. Agreement To Lock In Prices-Counterclaim I.

 

Multiut’s first counterclaim alleges that the parties orally agreed to “lock in” prices for certain Multiut’s customers that were buying from Multiut on a fixed-price basis. The agreement was allegedly entered into orally at a meeting on September 17, 2001.

 

Dynegy admits that the parties discussed this issue but argues that they never reached any agreement. Dynegy secondly argues that, even if they did, such an agreement would be barred by statute of frauds. Finally, Dynegy argues that Multiut has not presented evidence of damages. Based on the first and third arguments, we find in Dynegy’s favor on this counterclaim.

 

*4 To support its allegation that the parties entered into this alleged agreement, Multiut relies on three facts from its statement of material facts:

 

Fact 66: On or about September 17, 2001, Multiut supplied Dynegy with a list of contracts with end users for which Multiut had agreed to provide gas at fixed prices.

 

Fact 68: During the meeting with Multiut, Mark Ludwig and Pete Pavluk informed Draiman that they would work on locking in a price for gas below the fixed price at which Multiut agreed to supply gas for the duration of Multiut’s fixed price contracts. Draiman testified that Pete Pavluk informed him along the lines that “he would get it done” or “it would be done.”

 

Fact 69: Multiut relied on this understanding and did not seek out other suppliers for these fixed customers. By the time that Dynegy subsequently decided that it would not supply the gas at those fixed prices the market price for gas had risen to a point where [ ] Multiut paid more for gas than it received from its fixed price customers.

 

The evidentiary support for these three facts is the September 17th letter and Draiman’s recollection of what was said at the meeting.

 

This evidence, even taken in a light favorable to Dynegy, fails to show that the parties intended to enter into a binding contract or show what the terms of such an agreement were. Draiman’s testimony, as set forth in Fact 68, is that he was told that Dynegy would “work on” locking in prices. This statement is far too equivocal by itself to establish a meeting of minds, as it is ambiguous about whether Dynegy was merely considering the issue or alternatively making a vague but non-binding aspirational statement or, as Multiut alleges, was intending to enter into a binding contract. The rest of Draiman’s testimony is similarly vague about exactly what was said in this conversation. When asked whether either Pavluk or Ludwig ever “explicitly” stated that Dynegy would agree to lock in prices, Draiman conceded that they never made any explicit statement. (M Ex. Q at 303.) Instead, Draiman fell back on his claim that it was his “understanding” that the parties had reached an agreement. But a party’s subjective belief is not enough. Ocean Atlantic Dev. Corp. v. Aurora Christian Schools, Inc., 322 F.3d 983, 995 (7th Cir.2002).

 

The second piece of evidence, the September 17th letter, is also inconclusive and raises more questions than it answers. To begin with, the timing of the letter is unclear. The September 17th letter states in the first sentence that it was being sent “following” the meeting. (M Ex. DD.) In other words, contrary to the impression created by the order of the three facts quoted above, the September 17th letter was not presented before the meeting as a type of offer, but was sent after the meeting. Yet, the letter does not acknowledge that the parties had just reached an agreement. The letter merely provides a list of Multiut’s fixed-price customers for Dynegy’s “review,” a word suggesting that the parties were only at a preliminary discussion stage. This interpretation is underscored by the fact that, a few months after receiving the September 17th letter, Dynegy told Draiman that it would not agree to lock in prices. (Draiman Aff. ¶ 25.) Draiman claims that Dynegy’s rejection was “contrary to what [Draiman] had earlier understood,” but his unsubstantiated belief is not a basis for concluding that the parties had entered into a binding agreement, especially when all of the available evidence suggests that the parties were only involved, at most, in negotiations.FN5

 

FN5. Even if the parties intended to enter into an agreement, the terms of the agreement are not clear. For example, how long would the agreement last? Draiman states in his affidavit (¶ 18) that it would have been for a “particular time period,” but so far as we can tell, he never stated what that period would be.

 

*5 We also find that summary judgment is warranted for the separate and independent reason that Multiut has not provided any evidence of damages. The parties agree that Multiut must come forward with at least some evidence on summary judgment to show that it would be able to prove damages with a “reasonable degree of certainty” without relying on “conjecture or speculation.”  See generally Dunkin’ Donuts Inc. v. N.A.S.T., Inc., 428 F.Supp.2d 761, 767 (N.D.Ill.Dec.28, 2005) (summarizing cases) (“a non-movant’s failure to produce sufficient evidence of the damages element of its claim calls for the entry of summary judgement against that party”). As Judge Shadur concluded in Dunkin’ Donuts, a vague answer with no coherent explanation “totally flunks the Rule 56(e) requirement of admissible evidence.”Id. at 770 (emphasis in original.)

 

Here, Multiut has not provided a way to calculate damages. During discovery, Multiut failed to comply with Rule 26’s requirement that it provide a computation of damages. See D. Reply at 14-19 (summarizing discovery history). Multiut also has not provided an expert opinion on the damages related to its first counterclaim nor to any of the other counterclaims except the sixth one. Instead, Multiut relies solely on an affidavit of Draiman that was submitted after discovery closed. Dynegy argues that this affidavit should not be considered because Multiut failed to make timely disclosures during discovery. We agree. Multiut has not provided any explanation for its failure to make earlier disclosures, and to allow it to make late disclosures now, after a lengthy discovery process, would prejudice Dynegy. In sum, Multiut has not met its burden with regard to damages on this counterclaim.

 

B. Oral Agreement To Sell at Lowest Prices-Counterclaim VI.

 

The sixth counterclaim also involves an alleged oral agreement. The substance of the agreement, according to Multiut, is the following promise:

 

Multiut would be charged (i) a price either equal to or 1/2 cent per therm higher than the index price, or (ii) the lowest price contemporaneously being charged by Dynegy to any of Multiut’s competitors.

 

(Resp. at 36.) The latter provision is referred to by the parties as a “most favored nation” provision. Again, it is undisputed that there is no written document of any kind evidencing this agreement.

 

Dynegy makes similar arguments against this claim, asserting that it is barred by the statute of frauds; that no evidence proves that an agreement was reached; and that any agreement would have been superseded by the subsequent specific agreements on price. As explained below, we agree with these arguments.

 

The details of this alleged agreement are hazy. It is hard to reconstruct when it was made. The alleged agreement appears to be a hybrid of two oral agreements made many years apart.FN6The second half of the agreement-the most favored nation (“MFN”) provision-is an “understanding” that supposedly existed since “the inception of [the parties'] relationship.” (MF 54.) This would mean that the understanding came about sometime around 1988. Multiut provides no information about what day or month the parties agreed to this provision, where they were, who was present, or what was said. The first half of the agreement-tying the price to a certain amount above the index-was allegedly entered into “in the mid-1990s.” (Resp. at 13; MF 56.) Again, few details are provided. Multiut cannot narrow the date the agreement was made down to even a specific year. Further uncertainty exists over how the two separate agreements are supposed to work together as they each set forth a different pricing structure, raising a question about which one takes precedence over the over in the event of a conflict.

 

FN6. As Multiut artfully puts it in its brief (at p. 13), the parties entered into a “series of understandings” that in turn transformed into an “evolving” agreement.

 

*6 Unlike the September 17th alleged agreements, these two oral agreements are broad and cover all nominations. As such, it would be reasonable to expect that the parties would have included them in their written agreements given that they purported to set forth the general terms applicable to all nominations. The MFN provision allegedly was created before the 1988 and 1994 written agreements were signed. Yet neither agreement includes the provision. The 1994 agreement is based on the assumption that all prices would be negotiated on an individual, case-by-case basis for each nomination, an assumption at odds with the existence of the MFN provision. Draiman now claims that Dynegy’s agreement to the MFN provision was a “critical” pre-condition for Multiut entering into the 1988 written agreement. See Draiman Aff ¶ 16. If so, then surely he would have insisted that this critical provision be included in that agreement. The only reasonable explanation for why it was not is that Dynegy never agreed to it. This conclusion is also supported by Shkop’s testimony. He said that Dynegy did not agree to include the MFN provision in the written agreements because of problems with other suppliers and with its parent company. (M Ex. L at 20.) For all the above reasons, the evidence fails to provide any basis for believing that Dynegy intended to enter into a binding agreement as alleged by Multiut.

 

C. Implied Agreement To Waive Interest Payments-Counterclaim III.

 

The third counterclaim relates to the payment of interest for a certain period. Specifically, Dynegy failed to charge for interest in the invoices between March 1999 and December 2000 because, Dynegy explains, of an oversight that occurred with a change in employees. Multiut argues that the failure to send out invoices for this period constituted an implied agreement (or waiver) not to collect these interest payments. (MF 80.) In response, Dynegy argues first that the mere failure to send out an invoice is not an agreement to forego collection of these amounts and secondly that Multiut has failed to provide evidence of damages.

 

We agree with Dynegy’s first argument. Regardless of which legal theory it is relying on, Multiut acknowledges that it must show that it relied to its detriment on the implicit agreement or waiver. Yet, as Dynegy has demonstrated (see DF 66), the decisionmakers at Multiut had no knowledge of any agreement by Dynegy to waive charges. Most notably, Draiman was not involved in the making of any such agreement and did not know anyone who was. Although Lenore Kamien did notice that Dynegy had omitted the charges on some invoices, she only testified that she “assumed” that no interest was due. (MF 81.) And there is no evidence that she communicated with Draiman on this point.FN7

 

FN7. The reconciliation provision in the 1994 agreement provided that the parties would have up to 24 months to rectify any mistakes in the billing process. See Ex. DD, Article V-A(2) The existence of this provision would make it even more unreasonable to rely solely on an unverified belief that charges were being waived.

 

As for damages, although Multiut has not presented any evidence of damages, its failure with regard to this counterclaim is not fatal because the amount of interest charges has already been established by Dynegy first. Therefore, there would be no need for Multiut to provide proof of these amounts.

 

D. Agreement To Exclude Uncollectible Accounts-Counterclaim IV.

 

*7 In its fourth counterclaim, Multiut alleges that the parties intended in their 1994 agreement that Multiut would not have to pay for uncollectible accounts from end users because Multiut was merely acting as an agent. In other words, Dynegy bore the risk of uncollectible accounts. In response, Dynegy acknowledges that the 1994 agreement includes two general provisions stating that Multiut was acting as an agent to the end user principals, but Dynegy argues that this language was included merely to help Multiut avoid sales tax obligations that it thought were due if it took title to the gas before selling it to its customers. (DF 2.) The parties agree that question of interpreting the meaning of the 1994 agreement is a legal question.

 

As both sides concede, the 1994 agreement contains no provision explicitly addressing the specific question of which party is responsible for uncollectible accounts of end users. Multiut relies on general language in the first paragraph of the 1994 agreement stating that Multiut is acting as an agent of the ultimate consumers of the natural gas and that Multiut is performing according to instructions from the end-user principals. (MF 34-35.) Dynegy in turn relies on several provisions in the body agreement.

 

We start with the general language relied upon by Multiut and do so by quoting the entire first paragraph of the agreement from which that language is taken:

 

The purpose of this document is to set forth the understanding and Agreement between [Dynegy] and [Multiut], acting in its role as the duly authorized agent and representative of ultimate consumers and users of the natural gas delivered to Multiut under this Agreement. Seller and Multiut acknowledge that Multiut is acting as an authorized agent and is performing under this Agreement in accordance with the instructions of its principals. Except as specifically provided in this Agreement, Multiut and its principals, as ultimate consumers and users of the gas, are referred to collectively as “Buyer.” Seller agrees to sell and deliver gas to Buyer pursuant to the following terms and conditions[.]

 

While this paragraph does contain two statements that Multiut is acting as an agent to certain end users, this language is general and not connected to any operative provision in the main part of the agreement.

 

Significantly, this first paragraph defines the term “buyer” as being both Multiut and the end users. This collective definition by itself contradicts Multiut’s argument that it was not a buyer.FN8Furthermore, when this definition of buyer is applied to paragraph 5, which states that the “Buyer shall be obligated to pay for all quantities nominated,” it can only be interpreted to mean that Multiut, as a buyer, must pay for “all” the gas nominated. The agreement contains no other language that excludes uncollectible accounts from this broad provision.

 

FN8. The term “Buyer” is used throughout the agreement in a way that would only make sense if Multiut were considered a buyer. The agreement states, for example, that the Buyer shall have a right to make daily nominations of gas. This could only refer to Multiut as no evidence suggest that end users nominated gas or interacted with Dynegy in any way.

 

This conclusion is reinforced by other language in the agreement. The agreement states that Multiut is “responsible for collecting payment from its principals.”(Ex. DD; Article V-A(2).) Reading this provision in a straightforward way, we find that it creates a strong presumption that Multiut is “responsible for” uncollectible accounts. Put differently, if the parties had a contrary understanding, you would expect that they would have mentioned that here to make clear that Multiut was only required to try to collect payments and was not responsible if its effort failed.FN9This presumption is also reasonable because the agreement elsewhere specifically states that Dynegy is responsible for certain things. For example, Article IV-A states that Dynegy must pay “all royalties, taxes and other sums due on production[.]” (Ex. DD, Article IV-A.)

 

FN9. Multiut’s interpretation would create an awkward incentive system and also one difficult to enforce. How would a court be able to determine if Multiut was in breach of its duty to “collect” payments?

 

*8 There is no contextual evidence to the contrary. Multiut argues in its response brief (at p. 25) that the “circumstances surrounding the negotiation and performance” of the parties’ agreement created an “understanding” that Multiut would not be responsible for non-paying customers. But it has no evidence that Dynegy agreed to this understanding.FN10Draiman testified that no one from Dynegy ever said that Multiut would not be responsible if customers did not pay. (DF 76.)

 

FN10. In his deposition, Draiman stated that it was his understanding that the parties would “share” the burden of uncollectible accounts. (MF ¶ 49.) This statement is in conflict with Multiut’s current position that Dynegy would be solely responsible and it also raises a question of exactly how they would share the burden.

 

As for Dynegy’s alternative argument that Multiut did not produce evidence of its damages, Multiut states that the uncollectible accounts were $2,761,735.45. (MF 129.) This amount comes from Draiman’s affidavit (¶ 29). However, as noted above, Multiut failed to disclose this information in discovery and may not rely on it now.

 

II. Counterclaims Relating to Nicor.

 

A. Breach of Confidentiality Agreement-Counterclaim II.

 

In 1997, Dynegy expressed an interest in purchasing Multiut, and the parties entered into a confidentiality agreement to allow Dynegy to investigate the possibility. (1st Am CC ¶¶ 16-22.) As part of this process, several Dynegy employees were given confidential and proprietary information, including customer lists, copies of contracts with customers, etc. Dynegy, after receiving and studying the Multiut information, ultimately purchased Nicor and Illinova, two competitors of Multiut. Multiut alleges that the Dynegy employees “inevitably disclosed” confidential information to Nicor and Illinova and that, as a result, those companies were able to win customers from Multiut.

 

Dynegy raises a number of arguments in response, arguing that no evidence exists that the employees received confidential information and arguing that the “inevitable disclosure” doctrine only applies if an employee of Multiut was hired by Dynegy. Dynegy also argues that Multiut has no evidence of damages.

 

We find that summary judgment is warranted on the latter ground. Although Multiut alleges that it lost “profits and other damages” of more than $5 million from the alleged breach of the confidentiality agreement, Multiut has provided no evidence to quantify damages. Multiut’s expert stated in his deposition that he did not do any work to calculate damages relating to this counterclaim. (DF 65.) We have already found that Draiman’s affidavit may not be considered. And Draiman admitted that he does not know the number of customers that allegedly left Multiut for Nicor while also admitting that the loss of business was attributable to, among other things, his brother’s involvement, service issues, customer relationship issues, and the size of the customer. See DF 92-93.

 

B. Alleged Violation of Robinson-Patman Act-Counterclaim V.

 

Asserting a claim under the Robinson-Patman Act, 15 U.S.C. § 13(a), Multiut alleges that Dynegy sold gas at lower prices to competitors of Multiut, one of which was Nicor. Dynegy moves for summary judgment on three grounds: (i) Multiut cannot show that the gas sold to Nicor and Multiut was of “like grade and quality”; (ii) Multiut failed to provide a computation of its alleged injury; and (iii) Multiut failed to show that it had standing to assert an RPA claim.

 

*9 As to the first argument, Dynegy argues that what was being sold was not merely the natural commodity of natural gas but also inextricably included related services that varied between Multiut and Nicor, making them different cases. Multiut responds that this argument is really an affirmative defense of cost justification and that this is a fact question. Because we are not convinced by the authorities submitted by Dynegy on this argument, we find that summary judgment is not warranted on this ground.

 

We are also not persuaded by the third argument that Multiut is precluded from asserting an RPA claim because it was only an agent. As noted above, Dynegy has already argued that Multiut was not merely an agent but was operating more as a buyer in its own right. We have agreed with that argument based on our interpretation of the language of the contract. As Dynegy itself has argued in its reply brief, “Multiut is one or the other, not both.”(Reply at 35.)

 

However, as to the second argument, we agree that Multiut has failed to show evidence of injury. As described in Dynegy’s opening brief, the Supreme Court has held that a private plaintif seeking damages must not only meet the essential elements of a § 2(a) claim but also must show that it suffered injury. See Mem. at 31 (citing J. Truett Payne Co. v. Chrysler Motors Corp., 451 U.S. 557, 562, 101 S.Ct. 1923, 68 L.Ed.2d 442 (1981) (“proof of a violation does not mean that a disfavored purchaser has been actually ‘injured’ within the mean of § 4”). Dynegy points out that Multiut has provided no evidence of injury. In its one-paragraph response, Multiut only makes a conclusory assertion that it lost sales and profits. See Resp. at 49. But it has no evidence. First, Multiut specifically told its expert not to do any work on, or provide any opinions with respect to, the Robinson-Patman Act claim. Second, as noted above, although Draiman claims in an affidavit that his company lost customers to Nicor, he did not know of a single customer who had left Multiut for Nicor, and he also admitted that Multiut lost customers because of unrelated issues. (DF 92-94.)

 

III. Index Manipulation Evidence.

 

Multiut spends much time in its response arguing that Dynegy manipulated the index prices. See Resp. at 16-24. This allegation is based largely on an investigation conducted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (“FERC”) in 2002 and 2003. FERC concluded in a lengthy report that a number of major energy companies reported false price and volume information to industry publications, such as Gas Daily and Inside FERC, that compiled price indexes. (M Ex. A.) Fifteen Dynegy traders were involved in some way, including one who was later convicted for activity relating to price manipulation. As a result of its conduct, Dynegy entered into a settlement with FERC valued at approximately $282 million. (MF 14.) Multiut argues that Dynegy’s involvement either precludes recovery altogether or that it requires that the total amount be reduced by “invoices tainted by that manipulation.” (Resp. at 16.)

 

*10 The legal theory underlying this allegation is not clear. At one point, Multiut suggests that Dynegy must show as part of its prima facie breach of contract case that the invoices were not tainted by manipulation. See Resp. at 21. But we cannot find any legal support for the assertion that Dynegy must disprove fraud as part of its initial case. Multiut also argues that the price manipulation allegation relates to its first affirmative defense. (Resp. at 22.) This defense, entitled “Material Breach,” alleges that Dynegy “overcharged for gas … by failing to properly apply the index price [and] by failing to charge Multiut … the lowest price contemporaneously being charged … to Multiut’s competitors.”(Docket # 81, ¶ 10.) This affirmative defense is thus a restatement of the sixth counterclaim. Yet, as explained above, we have already granted summary judgment on that counterclaim, finding that the parties did not have any general agreement to base prices on index prices. We are therefore unclear at the outset as to how the price manipulations allegations fit into any viable legal theory.

 

In its reply brief Dynegy offers five specific reasons why the manipulation allegations should not be considered: (1) they are barred by res judicata based on Judge Pro’s dismissal of similar claims in the multi-district litigation in Nevada; (2) Magistrate Judge Mason already determined that evidence concerning price manipulation is not admissible or even likely to lead to admissible evidence; (3) the alleged manipulation only concerned California and western markets, but not price manipulation of the Chicago city-gate indexes that were used as the indexes by these parties; (4) the doctrine of unclean hands is not an affirmative defense to Dynegy’s monetary claims; and (5) Multiut did not plead (and therefore waived) these affirmative defenses. As explained below, we find that summary judgment should be granted on the first and third arguments.

 

Before addressing these two arguments, we begin with a general observation. The manipulation allegations are vast. They cover a wide and complex group of participants and a broad and factually intense subject area. The FERC report is over 400 pages and was completed after a year-long investigation. It discusses the activities of many wholesalers, including Aquila, AEP, El Paso Merchant Energy, Williams, Reliant, Duke, Mirant, Coral, CMS, and Sempra Energy Trading. (M Ex. A at ES-7-8.) It focuses on both the electricity and natural gas markets and concludes that they were “inextricably linked.” (M Ex. A at ES-1.) Multiut’s theory is that all these companies together defrauded the entire marketplace. (Resp. at 21.) In short, if these allegations are added to this case, they would turn a relatively straightforward breach of contract case involving two parties into a sprawling nationwide fraud case implicating numerous parties.

 

As for Dynegy’s argument that these claims are barred by res judicata, we agree with the reasons and authorities offered by Dynegy. See Reply at 4-7. As summarized therein, Judge Pro ruled that Multiut’s claims for fraud, violations of the Illinois Deceptive Business Practices Act, and violations of the Sherman Act, all of which were based on the same facts as the manipulation allegation here, should be dismissed under the filed rate. See Reply, Ex. 6-In Re Western States Wholesale Natural Gas Antitrust Litig, MDL 1566, Order dated May 15, 2006. In granting Dynegy’s motion to dismiss, Judge Pro held that the “nature of the damages sought would require this Court to determine the just and reasonable price of natural gas absent the alleged misconduct which forms the basis of Plaintiff’s Complaint, and therefore would be a violation of the filed rate doctrine.”(Order at 12.) As Dynegy has demonstrated, there is an identity of the parties; an identity of the causes of actions as the manipulation allegations here are the same as in the Nevada case; and there is a final judgment on the merits. Multiut’s complaint in the Nevada action contains the same allegations asserted here. See Dynegy Reply Ex. 5. If Multiut were allowed to litigate its manipulation claims here, it would defeat the purposes of res judicata.

 

*11 We also agree with Dynegy’s argument that the FERC report relates to the manipulation of the California and western market indexes. Index prices existed for 11 distinct geographic areas of the United States and Canada and also for 100 separate delivery points within those geographic areas. See Dynegy Reply at 9. The sales at issue here related only to the “Chicago City Gate” index prices. And, as Dynegy has argued in its reply brief, none of the investigations described in the FERC report and other exhibits submitted by Multiut address a single instance of a false price or volume report by a Dynegy employee with respect to Chicago city gate price indexes. Accordingly, we find that the alleged manipulation is too remote to be connected to a specific sale between these two parties.

 

This argument points to a larger problem with the manipulation allegations. The causal chain that Multiut seeks to prove is too attenuated and diffuse. Although not dispositive by itself, Magistrate Judge Mason’s observation in discovery is nonetheless apt: “[t]he relevance of [the price manipulation evidence] is premised on the implausible assertion that Dynegy, one of the many participants in the natural gas market, could independently influence the index price.”(12/02/03 Order.) As this observation suggests, Dynegy was only one of many players in this market and could not control the entire market by itself. Moreover, it is not clear how damages would apply in that Multiut’s theory is that the fraud was perpetrated on the entire marketplace so that the price charged by all suppliers presumably would have been equally affected by the alleged manipulation. And it is also not clear in Multiut’s response brief whether the higher charges were simply passed through to end users. As Draiman stated in his affidavit, some customers were charged on either a “cost plus” or an “index plus” method in which the end user paid the index price plus an additional charge to Multiut. These questions, and many others, are not explained clearly in Multiut’s response brief. In sum, for all the above reasons, the price manipulation allegations, even if true, do not preclude summary judgment on either Dynegy’s claims or Multiut’s counterclaims.

 

CONCLUSION

 

For the reasons set forth above, defendant’s motion for summary judgment is granted, and judgment is granted to plaintiff, and against defendants Multiut and Draiman, on Counts I and II of plaintiff’s amended complaint, in the amount of $15,348,244.72 plus interest accruing from October 1, 2004. Judgment is granted for plaintiff and against defendants on Counts I through VI of defendants’ counterclaims.

 

N.D.Ill.,2008.

Dynegy Marketing and Trade v. Multiut Corp.

Slip Copy, 2008 WL 2410425 (N.D.Ill.)

 

END OF DOCUMENT

Nachshon Draiman and Multiut charged with a $15 million judgment for fraud

October 2, 2008 by yehudadraiman

Nachshon Draiman and Multiut charged with a $15 million judgment for fraud

Honorable John A. Nordberg: Enter Memorandum Opinion and Order.

For the reasons set forth above, defendants motion for summary judgment is granted, and judgment is granted to plaintiff, and against defendants Multiut and Nachshon Draiman

Case 1:02-cv-07446 Document 228 Filed 06/11/2008 Page 1 of 1

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT

FOR THE Northern District of Illinois − CM/ECF LIVE, Ver 3.2.1

Eastern Division

Dynegy Marketing and Trade

Plaintiff,

v.                                                                  Case No.: 1:02−cv−07446

                                                                                       Hon. John A. Nordberg

Multiut Corporation, Nachshon Draiman, Future Associates, et al.

Defendant.

NOTIFICATION OF DOCKET ENTRY

This docket entry was made by the Clerk on Wednesday, June 11, 2008:

MINUTE entry before the Honorable John A. Nordberg:Enter Memorandum

Opinion and Order. For the reasons set forth above, defendants motion for summary judgment is granted, and judgment is granted to plaintiff, and against defendants Multiut and Nachshon Draiman, on Counts I and II of plaintiffs amended complaint, in the amount of

$15,348,244.72 plus interest accruing from October 1, 2004. Judgment is granted for plaintiff and against defendants on Counts I through VI of defendants

counterclaims.Status hearing set for 10/2/2008 at 2:30 PM. [183],[196]Mailed notice(tlp, )

ATTENTION: This notice is being sent pursuant to Rule 77(d) of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure or Rule 49(c) of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure. It was generated by CM/ECF, the automated docketing system used to maintain the civil and criminal dockets of this District. If a minute order or other document is enclosed, please refer to it for additional information.

For scheduled events, motion practices, recent opinions and other information, visit our web site at www.ilnd.uscourts.gov.

CONCLUSION

 

For the reasons set forth above, defendant’s motion for summary judgment is granted, and judgment is granted to plaintiff, and against defendants Multiut and Nachshon Draiman, on Counts I and II of plaintiff’s amended complaint, in the amount of $15,348,244.72 plus interest accruing from October 1, 2004. Judgment is granted for plaintiff and against defendants on Counts I through VI of defendants’ counterclaims.

FN1. Dynegy has also filed several fraudulent transfer counts alleging that Nachshon Draiman caused Multiut to transfer over $21 million to himself, his family, and related business entities and that most of this money came from the sale of gas delivered by Dynegy. But the present summary judgment motion does not address these counts.

 

 

N.D.Ill.,2008.

Dynegy Marketing and Trade v. Multiut Corp.

Slip Copy, 2008 WL 2410425 (N.D.Ill.)

See: www.nachshondraiman.net

 

END OF DOCUMENT

Nachshon Draiman, Chicago – nursing home administrator license (044001323). revoked 

Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation 2008

File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat – View as HTML
Nachshon Draiman, Chicago – nursing home administrator license (044001323). revoked and fined $2000 for misrepresenting information in his application
www.idfpr.com/Forms/DISCPLN/0108_dis.pdf – Similar pages

See: www.nachshondraiman.net

Unauthorized Charges on Your Local Phone – Utility Bill?

October 2, 2008 by yehudadraiman

Unauthorized Charges on Your Local Phone – Utility Bill?

How to Find Them, Eliminate Them & Get Your Money Back!

If your business still gets its phone service through the old “AT&T and Verizon, etc” local phone company (as opposed to one of the newer competitive phone providers) then you need to double check your phone bill each and every month for charges you did not authorize. You may not know it but the local phone company allows other companies to bill you through your local phone bill. And while the local phone company allows other businesses to bill you through your local phone bill, the local phone company does not verify that the charges being billed to you by the other company are valid. When these unauthorized charges fraudulently appear on your phone bill it’s called “cramming”. Unfortunately you as the business owner or manager are the only one that can spot the unauthorized charges and if you don’t comb over your bill every month to spot these unauthorized charges – you’ll pay for them.

Why does the local phone company allow other companies to pass charges onto your phone bill? “Third-party billing” is supposedly a great convenience in that you only have to pay one bill instead of separate bills for obvious authorized phone related charges like yellow-page advertising in the “real yellow pages”, 411 information calls and long-distance calls from your chosen long distance carrier. Over the years though, some less-than-scrupulous companies have realized that most businesses rarely scrutinize their local-phone bills. To take advantage of this, these companies have come up with elaborate schemes to place

unauthorized charges on your phone bill that you’ll end up paying for without even thinking. Unauthorized

charges you can end up paying for include charges for unwanted (and unused) email accounts, web sites,

directory information calls, directory advertising in obscure publications, voice mail accounts and other

services.

In theory, before these charges can be placed on your phone bill, the company that is originating the third-party billed charges is supposed to have a verification of the order like a voice recording. In reality though,

all the company needs to do to initiate the charge is submit your name and phone number to the billing

entity. The verifications are only required to be produced if a complaint is filed.

To prevent these charges from appearing on you business phone bill it’s helpful to understand the four

parties that make unauthorized third party phone charges a costly reality. Party number one is any

employee who can answer your business phones. The unauthorized charge is rarely random and it usually

happens after one of your company employees gets a telemarketing call. Employees should be instructed to

document and report any overly aggressive telemarketing calls they receive. Party number two is the

telemarketing company that originates the unauthorized charges by trying to get your employee to accept

some service for which you’ll be billed through your local phone bill. Party number three is the third-party

billing company that has billing agreements with your local phone company. The name of the third-party

billing is the one that is prominently displayed on your phone bill. After the third-party billing company’s

name is the name of the company that is originating the unwanted charges. Party number four is your “former Ma Bell” local phone company that collects the unwanted charges (keeps a share for “Ma”) and then passes the rest to the third-party billing company (who keeps a big share) and then passes the balance on to the company that initiated the unwanted charge.

Following are some of the top third-party billing names and unauthorized charge originators you’ll find on

your phone bill. If you see these names on your phone bill you’ll want to call the toll free number listed next to the charge to confirm it’s a charge that’s been properly authorized to be placed on your bill. Following are actual examples that we’ve recently found while auditing business phone bills.

We recommend customers should review any utility bills issued by deregulated utility companies. (In most instances today, consumers are paying higher charges to the deregulated gas and electric supply companies).

All Utility – Energy, gas, electric and water bills should be reviewed for proper reading and tariff.

If you suspect that you have been overcharged ask for detailed explanation and or file a complaint with your State Utility Commission.

Compiled by: Jay Draiman, Utility & Telecom Auditor

Nachshon Draiman and Multiut charged with a $15 million judgment for fraud

October 1, 2008 by yehudadraiman

Nachshon Draiman and Multiut charged with a $15 million judgment for fraud

Honorable John A. Nordberg: Enter Memorandum Opinion and Order.

For the reasons set forth above, defendants motion for summary judgment is granted, and judgment is granted to plaintiff, and against defendants Multiut and Nachshon Draiman

Case 1:02-cv-07446 Document 228 Filed 06/11/2008 Page 1 of 1

UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT

FOR THE Northern District of Illinois − CM/ECF LIVE, Ver 3.2.1

Eastern Division

Dynegy Marketing and Trade

Plaintiff,

v.                                                                  Case No.: 1:02−cv−07446

                                                                                       Hon. John A. Nordberg

Multiut Corporation, Nachshon Draiman, Future Associates, et al.

Defendant.

NOTIFICATION OF DOCKET ENTRY

This docket entry was made by the Clerk on Wednesday, June 11, 2008:

MINUTE entry before the Honorable John A. Nordberg:Enter Memorandum

Opinion and Order. For the reasons set forth above, defendants motion for summary judgment is granted, and judgment is granted to plaintiff, and against defendants Multiut and Nachshon Draiman, on Counts I and II of plaintiffs amended complaint, in the amount of

$15,348,244.72 plus interest accruing from October 1, 2004. Judgment is granted for plaintiff and against defendants on Counts I through VI of defendants

counterclaims.Status hearing set for 10/2/2008 at 2:30 PM. [183],[196]Mailed notice(tlp, )

ATTENTION: This notice is being sent pursuant to Rule 77(d) of the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure or Rule 49(c) of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure. It was generated by CM/ECF, the automated docketing system used to maintain the civil and criminal dockets of this District. If a minute order or other document is enclosed, please refer to it for additional information.

For scheduled events, motion practices, recent opinions and other information, visit our web site at www.ilnd.uscourts.gov.

CONCLUSION

 

For the reasons set forth above, defendant’s motion for summary judgment is granted, and judgment is granted to plaintiff, and against defendants Multiut and Nachshon Draiman Draiman, on Counts I and II of plaintiff’s amended complaint, in the amount of $15,348,244.72 plus interest accruing from October 1, 2004. Judgment is granted for plaintiff and against defendants on Counts I through VI of defendants’ counterclaims.

 

N.D.Ill.,2008.

Dynegy Marketing and Trade v. Multiut Corp.

Slip Copy, 2008 WL 2410425 (N.D.Ill.)

See: www.nachshondraiman.net

 

END OF DOCUMENT

Nachshon Draiman, Chicago – nursing home administrator license (044001323). revoked 

Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation 2008

File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat – View as HTML
Nachshon Draiman, Chicago – nursing home administrator license (044001323). revoked and fined $2000 for misrepresenting information in his application
www.idfpr.com/Forms/DISCPLN/0108_dis.pdf – Similar pages

See: www.nachshondraiman.net

Utilizing all the sources into one formula.

June 30, 2008 by yehudadraiman

Utilizing all the sources into one formula.

 

Often partial solutions to our problems are presented on the Internet but nobody puts the pieces together. Recently, I have focused quite a bit on the energy issue, and I have found that solutions abound, but the political will to implement them is lacking, or they appear uneconomical because they are, by themselves in fact uneconomical.

A good example of this is wind power penetrating the grid at more than about 20%. By itself taken in isolation, with all other variables ignored; more than about 20% seems impractical because of the variability of wind. But taken with other solutions the picture is quite different.

Our existing electrical grid is mostly an AC grid, the east and the western grids aren’t substantially connected, and overall it’s inefficient, unreliable, and at capacity straining to meet ever growing demands.

If this weren’t the case; if we modernized our electrical grid adding east-west ties and converting all spans longer than 300km to DC transmission, first, doing this alone would be like adding 15% additional generating capacity to the grid without any additional pollution because we could cut the losses from around 17% to around 2%. Moreover, efficient east-west transmission would allow us to distribute the peak load across the time zones requiring less peak capacity and making more efficient use of the capacity we already have, above and beyond grid losses.

If we can utilize geographical diversity with wind generation, something only possible with the modernization of our power grid; then the total capacity available from wind power never falls below about 1/3rd of peak capacity, and then we could, if we choose, simply overbuild capacity and supply our entire electrical needs from wind alone. I’m not advocating wind alone, ideally we’d use a mixture of renewable sources, solar, geo-thermal, ocean-current, ocean-wave, tidal, ocean-thermal, various forms of hydro (there are forms that can capture energy from the movement of river water without dams), etc.

We could generate all of our electricity by wind if we so choose simply by building 3x as much capacity as we need and modernizing the electrical grid. But there is a snag, wind, presently the least expensive method of generating electricity, less so even than coal now, would lose its attractive economics if we had to overbuild by 3x AND if there were no market for that peak power.

Add in some other technologies, for example, we can take electricity, carbon dioxide, and water, and using one of three processes, we can make an alcohol called Butynol (Butynol is manufactured by combining the petroleum gases. isobutylene and isoprene at the extremely low temperature of 100 degree centigrade) which can directly be used as a replacement for gasoline in ordinary gasoline cars. Butynol actually has tremendous advantages over gasoline. Butynol produces only 3% of the hydrocarbon emissions, almost un-measurable carbon monoxide emissions, and greatly reduced nitrous oxides relative to gasoline. It also produces slightly better fuel mileage and power, greatly reduced acidic blow-by products (thereby enhancing engine life) and less waste heat (also enhancing engine life).

We can make Butynol from electricity, carbon dioxide, and water by one of three methods. There exists a kind of reverse fuel cell that was recently invented that uses a catalyst in the presence of electricity to convert carbon dioxide and water to Butynol. That is one method; it’s a method that from what I’ve read Richard Branson paid to have developed to produce Butynol as a renewable jet fuel. However, there are two other methods also that can be used, carbon dioxide can be electrolyzed into oxygen and carbon monoxide, the carbon monoxide can be mixed with steam to form “process gas”, and then in the presence of catalysts, this can be used to create a variety of useful hydrocarbons including Butynol. Lastly, electricity can be used to create sufficient heat to disassociate carbon dioxide into carbon monoxide and oxygen and then the same process that follows electrolysis can be used. The last process has been demonstrated on an industrial scale, I’m not sure if the first processes have made it out of the lab, but they have at least been demonstrated in the lab. Using the latter two processes it is also possible to make synthetic diesel.

If use the electricity generated during times when there is excess capacity to create Butynol, we can replace imported oil used for gasoline and diesel, while at the same time providing a market for the peak electrical production, thereby allowing wind power to be economical even when capacity is overbuilt, and we create a market for the carbon dioxide generated by existing coal and gas fired plants instead of just releasing the carbon dioxide into the air. When the Butynol is burned it will release carbon dioxide, but this is displacing oil that would have been burnt, so the net result will be a reduction in carbon dioxide and if we can bring enough renewable electricity capacity online to eliminate the need for fossil fueled power generation, then we can continue to make Butynol by sequestering carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere, thus making the process a closed loop resulting in no net carbon dioxide increase.

Any one of these elements by themselves may not be economic; but they are all mutually synergistic and implemented together they could eliminate our dependency upon foreign oil first, and later eliminate our dependency upon fossil fuels (or for that matter abiotic oil) entirely. (Abiotic – generally asserting that oil is formed from magma instead of an organic origin)

We should be doing this, and we should not be doing it ten or fifty years from now, we should be doing it now.

 

Jay Draiman said…

Water is the source of life – treasure it! R4.
Water is the source of all life on earth. It touches every area of our lives. Without it, we could not thrive — we could not even survive.

Sustainability – “We strive to meet the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”.
We should discourage wastefulness and misuse, and promote efficiency and conservation.
“Conservation is really the cheapest source of supply,”
For the benefit of mankind, maintain the quality of life and preserve the peace and tranquility of world population. Water resources must be preserved – to sustain humanity. We must eliminate wasteful utilization of water, conserve our water sources and implement rigid conservation methods. We should utilize solar and or other source of renewable energy to operate desalinization projects from the oceans. Utilize renewable energy sources to purify and transport the water to its final destination. As world population increases the scarcity of water will become a cause for conflict, unless we take steps now to develop other sources of water for drinking, rainwater harvesting – storm-water and gray-water utilization. Designing of landscaping that uses minimal amount of water.
“With power shortages and a water scarcity a constant threat across the West, it’s time to look at water and energy in a new way,”
To preserve the future generations sustainability, we should look into urban farming – vertical farming. The term “urban farming” may conjure up a community garden where locals grow a few heads of lettuce. But some academics envision something quite different for the increasingly hungry world of the 21st century: a vertical farm that will do for agriculture what the skyscraper did for office space. Greenhouse giant: By stacking floors full of produce, a vertical farm could rake in $18 million a year.
Jay Draiman, Energy and water conservation consultant
June 29, 2008
PS.

Hydro dynamics: forget oil. Sharing freshwater equitably poses political conundrums as explosive and far-reaching as global climate change.
Quoted from other sources
Anyone who has ever stood on a beach and looked out into the vast expanse of an ocean knows that there is a lot of water on this planet. In fact, 70 percent of the Earth’s surface is covered by water. It may seem like water is all around us, but safe, clean, reliable drinking water is not a ceaseless resource. The problems facing drinking water range from failing infrastructure, to climate change, to insufficient supplies.

Personal Conservation
Preserving our water resources is not a job for water industry professionals alone. We all have a vested interest in ensuring that water remains safe, affordable and available. Therefore, each individual American has a responsibility to monitor and control their water use, There are many simple ways for people to reduce excess water use, lower water bills and protect the environment, especially in die spring and summer months, Beyond the standard constraints of watering the lawn only when necessary and washing car wisely by using soap and a bucket of water, some steps include: draining water lines to outside faucets, disconnecting hoses, shutting off outdoor water sources during cold weather and running a small trickle of water on whiter nights to prevent pipe from freezing.
Conclusion:
Water supply management is an issue that affects us all. It may not be apparent to every citizen today, but with climate change and population shifts transforming the United States, it soon will be. Effective solutions need to be put into place today before we are faced with a water crisis. A focus on careful planning, treatments, innovations and conservation measures will help to create stability for long-term water management. Commitment to keeping water at the top of the list for communities and citizens will better prepare us for whatever the future of water holds.

WATER!
The indispensable source of life-without water there would be no industry, no agriculture and, most importantly of all, no life. In dry parts of the world this essential commodity is even more precious. Almost all human actions involve water from taking a shower to reading a newspaper to driving a car or simply eating a sandwich – almost everything we do or touch is somehow related to this precious treasure. We ask that you stop and think how you use water and what you can do to conserve this essential natural resource.
*Water, beliefs and customs,
*Water as a vehicle of the economy,
*Water, source of art and life, irrigation and cultivation.
The people have decided to act to try and develop a real awareness program on the theme of water preservation and distribution in an attempt to help maintain the original purity of rivers and streams.
In many parts of the world water sources and wells are not equally distributed. Water as a source of life can also be at the source of conflict.
Whether we live in India, Iceland or the Atlas… we have always tried to trap and tame water. Dams, pumps, canals, water treatment centers; there are so many different ways to exploit this resource that we often forget how fragile this unique and essential treasure actually is.
Unfortunately, many of the things we do every day can harm our water. That’s why all people and government should be working with municipalities, farmers, business leaders and developers just like you to take action to protect our water and clean it up.
Small changes can make a big difference. This guide outlines practical things we can all do to preserve and protect our water. We all need to be part of the solution.
Concentrated Solar Power, which requires no solar panels at all. It works by concentrating sunlight onto a small pipe using cheap parabolic reflectors. The pipe contains a liquid that’s heated to very high temperatures by the sun and drives a steam boiler that rotates a turbine to generate electricity (much like nuclear power plants, but without the nuclear waste). It’s cheap, low-tech, and far more affordable than solar power. Plus, it can be built in practically any desert, so it doesn’t take up valuable land. As another bonus, when CSP operations are built near the ocean, they can desalinate ocean water as a side effect, providing fresh water for irrigation to grow food. This is the only renewable energy technology I know of that can produce cheap energy, fresh water and crop irrigation all at the same time. Plus, it has no emissions, no toxic chemicals, no nuclear waste and very little environmental impact..
“You can’t escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today” – Abraham Lincoln said it.
“That man is richest whose pleasures are the cheapest” – Henry David Thoreau.
“To waste, to destroy, our natural resources, to skin and exhaust the land instead of using it so as to increase its usefulness, will result in undermining in the days of our children the very prosperity which we ought by right to hand down to them amplified and developed” – Theodore Roosevelt.
“When the ‘study of the household’ (ecology) and the ‘management of the household’ (economics) can be merged, and when ethics can be extended to include ‘environmental’ as well as human values, then we can be optimistic about the future of mankind. Accordingly, bringing together these three E’s is the ultimate holism and the great challenge for our future” – Eugene Odum.

Water, it’s been said, is the “oil of the 21st century” — a commodity whose availability and quality may be subject to both known and unknown influences. For companies, that poses significant risks, and many companies are making water a strategic issue, creating water management plans that include efficiency and conservation as well as contingency plans should water become less available or more costly. Many firms are examining their products, policies, and processes through the lens of a world in which the availability of water becomes a constraint to doing business.

 

June 29, 2008

Comment  

To be sure water is important to life; it’s one of the first things we look for on another planet when considering whether that planet may or may not be capable of supporting life.

That said; fresh water on Earth is a secondary problem. Water is an issue only to the degree energy is an issue because there is plenty of salt water and energy can turn salt water into fresh water.

You and I disagree with respect to priorities. You make the statement, “As population rises water will become more scarce”.

Well, that’s true; but let’s look at the first part of that equation, “As population rises”, and attack that issue first.

Population doesn’t rise in developed countries with robust economies except through immigration.

The lesson there is, if we can eliminate poverty globally, we’ll eliminate population growth. In my view, this ought to be priority number one because sustainability depends upon a stable population.

Eliminating poverty, even with conservation, is going to require increased energy production and that can’t be accommodated by fossil fuels.

Even worse; the production of fossil fuels has at least temporarily peaked, and even though recent discoveries and new technology will no doubt allow it to continue to grow, no new technology will produce more air; or ocean capable of absorbing carbon dioxide; therefore it’s important that the use of fossil fuels not increase, even if we are capable of doing so.

However, the demand is growing and supply is stable or shrinking, if this issue isn’t addressed immediately we’re looking at a world of economic collapse, widespread hunger, and increased population growth rate.

So we need to consider every option available to replace declining sweet light crude production, we can not, absolutely can not “forget oil” as you suggest.

June 29, 2008   

Our current methods of living are not sustainable

How we make a future for ourselves and our children.

You must serve as an example in implementing energy efficiency.

June 29, 2008 by yehudadraiman

You must serve as an example in implementing energy efficiency.

 

I think if corporate America is serious about energy conservation; it must start with people at the top and roll down from there to the rest of the executives and employees.

 

In order to accomplish such an important mission as energy conservation every executive and employee has to believe that what he is doing is the right thing.

 

They must practice the same attitude at home and implement energy conservation at home. This attitude will carry on to the workplace.

 

First thing that must be done is, each employee should be asked what has he/she done in their own lives to conserve energy, and than if the answer is positive advance the initiative from there, if not an education process must be implemented to drive the process home once this process has been achieved, it will be easier to get everyone to participate in energy conservation.

 

The motive and behavior has to come from within each individual person – it must become part of a routine practice – it must become a way of life – reducing waste in any form.

 

In today’s rising cost of energy – conservation must become a national theme.

 

Jay Draiman, Energy Analyst

Runaway Energy Costs – causing inflation and panic

June 15, 2008 by yehudadraiman

Runaway Energy Costs – causing inflation and panic

 

Spurred by soaring energy costs, food prices and other goods and services have risen nearly 20 percent or more in the past 20 months — more than double the usual increase.

Commodity prices for corn, wheat, soybeans and other staples have been skyrocketing over the past year to more than double their prices from 2006.

Economists have also pointed toward the growing demand for grains for ethanol and other biofuels, tying the price of corn to the price of oil and increasing the pressure and demand for land use.

“It is important to note the contribution of runaway energy prices to the retail cost of food goods and services. “Transportation, processing and packaging all cost significantly more now than in prior years.”

The snowball effect of soaring energy prices is causing increased prices for all goods and services, from food, medical, construction and other material.

Speculation is often criticized as the cause of surging grain prices. But the current abnormal price increases could not have occurred without firm demand. Indeed, farmers are cultivating cash plants while buyers are seeking cheaper alternatives, forming a chain of price surges.

World food production must rise by 50 percent by 2030 to meet increasing demand.

Biofuels to blame?
The increasing diversion of food and animal feed to produce biofuel, and sharply higher fuel costs have also helped to shoot prices upward, experts say.

The senate and the House should call for expanded funding for weatherization and tax credits for other energy-saving programs, $100 billion for expansion of mass transit systems, $100 billion for renewable energy development and renewable energy projects and $50 billion in bonds for roads, bridges and other transportation projects.

Traders are also at fault

A boom in speculation and trading by investment banks and hedge funds has put our energy markets on steroids. Contract volume in the futures markets has risen by a third in just the last year. Oil closed at a record high of $125.96 a barrel (USO: , , ) on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. That’s double the price two years ago, a difference clearly caused by market manipulation.

This isn’t complicated finance. The way traders push up prices is surprisingly simple. They buy in European futures markets, which don’t have the limits that U.S. markets do. That drives up U.S. prices where they may already have positions. It’s a move to think about next time one of these exchange chiefs talks about all of the benefits of “market globalization.”

None of it would matter except that these markets are supposed to be driven by supply and demand. China and other rapidly growing countries may be using more, or will use more resources, but the reality is that demand and supply haven’t changed enough to warrant the price of oil doubling in less than three years.

 

Hedge Funds and Banks driving oil prices

In the most recent sustained run-up in energy prices, large financial institutions, hedge funds, pension funds, and other investors have been pouring billions of dollars into the energy commodities markets to try to take advantage of price changes or hedge against them. Most of this additional investment has not come from producers or consumers of these commodities, but from speculators seeking to take advantage of these price changes. The CFTC defines a speculator as a person who “does not produce or use the commodity, but risks his or her own capital trading futures in that commodity in hopes of making a profit on price changes.”

The large purchases of crude oil futures contracts by speculators have, in effect, created an additional demand for oil, driving up the price of oil for future delivery in the same manner that additional demand for contracts for the delivery of a physical barrel today drives up the price for oil on the spot market. As far as the market is concerned, the demand for a barrel of oil that results from the purchase of a futures contract by a speculator is just as real as the demand for a barrel that results from the purchase of a futures contract by a refiner or other user of petroleum.

 

Perhaps 60% of oil prices today pure speculation

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley today are the two leading energy trading firms in the United States. Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase are major players and fund numerous hedge funds as well who speculate.

In June 2006, oil traded in futures markets at some $60 a barrel and the Senate investigation estimated that some $25 of that was due to pure financial speculation. One analyst estimated in August 2005 that US oil inventory levels suggested WTI crude prices should be around $25 a barrel, and not $60.

That would mean today that at least $50 to $60 or more of today’s $115 a barrel price is due to pure hedge fund and financial institution speculation. However, given the unchanged equilibrium in global oil supply and demand over recent months amid the explosive rise in oil futures prices traded on Nymex and ICE exchanges in New York and London it is more likely that as much as 60% of the today oil price is pure speculation. No one knows officially except the tiny handful of energy trading banks in New York and London and they certainly aren’t talking.

By purchasing large numbers of futures contracts, and thereby pushing up futures prices to even higher levels than current prices, speculators have provided a financial incentive for oil companies to buy even more oil and place it in storage. A refiner will purchase extra oil today, even if it costs $135 per barrel, if the futures price is even higher.

As a result, over the past two years crude oil inventories have been steadily growing,

resulting in US crude oil inventories that are now higher than at any time in the previous eight years. The large influx of speculative investment into oil futures has led to a situation where we have both high supplies of crude oil and high crude oil prices.

Compelling evidence also suggests that the oft-cited geopolitical, economic, and natural factors do not explain the recent rise in energy prices can be seen in the actual data on crude oil supply and demand. Although demand has significantly increased over the past few years, so have supplies.

 

Over the past couple of years global crude oil production has increased along with the increases in demand; in fact, during this period global supplies have exceeded demand, according to the US Department of Energy. The US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently forecast that in the next few years global surplus production capacity will continue to grow to between 3 and 5 million barrels per day by 2010, thereby “substantially thickening the surplus capacity cushion.”

Compiled by:  Jay Draiman

PAY AS YOU SAVE Energy conservation financing program

May 19, 2008 by yehudadraiman
PAY AS YOU SAVE Energy conservation financing program The program will allow participants to purchase and install energy efficient productsAnd equipment (or “measures”), with no up-front cost. These measures can include modifications to lighting, heating, cooling, other energy efficient electric, gas and non-electric equipment and systems. Major measures promoted: lighting, weatherization, water saving devices and clock thermostats in both electric and non-electrically heated homes and businesses. 
We should also accept a variety of measures (provided they pass the Program qualification.
This can apply to any conservation method, renewable energy systems, electric, gas and water.Primary goals should be lighting retrofits, motor retrofit, HVAC efficiency, insulation and attic fans, windows, energy efficient appliances, water conservation equipment and techniques, utilization of gray water, landscaping for energy conservation.
HOW DO WE PROPOSE TO FINANCE THE COSTS: There is no up-front cost to the participants? Instead, the utility pays all initial costs associated with the purchase and installation of approved measures. (We must keep the costs competitive and reasonable)Then, an Energy Finance Charge (EFC) is calculated and added to the ember’s/customers monthly utility bill until all costs are repaid.A fund will be set up and the payments will reimburse the fund monthly.
Calculating the Term: Financing charge amounts itemized on the monthly utility bill should be based on two thirds of the estimated savings that will come from the measures installed. This way, the monthly charge should be designed to be less than the savings realized on each bill once the new measures are installed and implemented.If customers wish to pay off their Financing charges balances quicker (which in some cases they do), up to one hundred percent (100%) of the savings can be used to form the basis of their monthly Finance charge amount.
Payments Linked to Meter (not customer): The payments are always linked to the service location, not to the customer. So if an Energy Financing Charge (EFC) participant moves or sells, the new owner continues making the payments for the duration of the payment term, unless the previous owner/tenant chooses to pay off the obligation before selling or moving. Also, the payments include a small percentage risk mitigation adder (5%) to protect the utility from bad debt risks associated with some portion of participants’ failure to pay.
To protect the utilities and their broader membership/customer base against other potential risks, three key requirements are included in the EFC program for those that choose to participate:
Maintenance: All measures must be maintained in place and in good working order during the entire repayment period – the utility will help arrange for repairs, but any associated costs will be added to the EFC on the utility bill, or will extend the payment term to ensure recovery of these additional charges.
Disconnection: All payments must be made on time – EFC charges are treated like other charges on the utility bill that are subject to service disconnection for non-payment.
Disclosure: If the home or business is sold or rented, disclosure of the remaining monthly EFC payment amounts must be made to the potential purchaser or tenant (since they will be taking over the remaining payment obligation), unless the current owner chooses to pay the balance off before the sale or rental.
This proposed program – managed efficiently, will advance and expedite our reduction in the use of energy and resources in an expedited manner and reduce our dependence on foreign energy sources.It will also promote an economic boom in the geographical areas where such program is implemented.
Compiled by: Yehuda Draiman, Energy analyst – 1/1/2008

ERV Energy Recovery Ventilation Systems Reduce Long Term Costs and Improve Indoor Air Quality

May 19, 2008 by yehudadraiman

ERV Energy Recovery Ventilation Systems Reduce Long Term Costs and Improve Indoor Air Quality Is the indoor air your breathe is as fresh and healthy as it can be? As building science professionals have known for some time, an effective ventilation strategy is an absolute requirement for all homes. Mechanical ventilators exchange air inside the home with fresh air from the outside. This helps to reduce indoor pollution levels, and greatly increases the comfort level inside the home.Many ventilation designs are including Energy Recovery Ventilators (ERVs) to improve the system efficiency. Besides providing controlled ventilation, ERVs are able to filter, humidify, dehumidify, heat, or cool the incoming fresh air. The most popular design of ERVs utilizes a desiccant wheel to remove both heat and a significant amount of moisture from the incoming air, which reduces the load on the air-conditioning system. But while ventilators and ERVs can add tremendously to the comfort and efficiency of a home, they must be installed correctly. One of the more recent developments in the ‘green’ technology industry is the creation of environmentally-friendly buildings that use energy-efficient technologies to reduce power consumption. Energy consultants point out that creating ‘green’ buildings and improving the air quality inside such facilities utilizing ERV can and do go hand-in-hand.  ERV Systems that reduce demand for energy while improving ventilation are increasingly in demand. ERV – Energy Recovery Ventilation systems saves energy, increases indoor air quality, reduces contaminates and odors. Click here to watch a video featuring Gartner vice president Michael Maoz sharing new insights on innovative technologies and processes shaping the future of customer service.Click here to learn how Continental Dispatch Accelerates Customer Service with a Hosted Contact Center System.Click here to learn how to leverage greater long-term value from your CRM system.Click here to read how Oracle has dramatically improved pipeline management and, in turn, increased sales velocity. The use of ERV technology “energy recovery ventilation systems,” or ERVs. Such systems are designed to reduce energy consumption and improve indoor air quality (IAQ) by capturing and recycling building energy to humidify, pre-cool or dehumidify incoming air.   ERVs, the research first said, are most popular in areas with more extreme outdoor temperatures, like Northern states where winters can get quite cold, or Southern states where very warm temperatures and high humidity demand more energy consumption to maintain comfortable indoor environments.  “The focus on IAQ is another key trend benefiting ERV, as people become increasingly conscious of the importance to maintain air quality through properly designed and managed HVAC systems,” Energy consultant said in the energy audit survey.  Market growth for ERVs, Energy consultant said, is driven largely by energy conservation policies that are challenging building custodians to reduce energy consumption for indoor climates. The firm cited as an example the 90.1 standard from American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) which currently dictates “energy recovery systems for applications of 5000 cubic feet per minute (cfm) and larger with 70 percent outside air (OA).” ASHRAE 90.1 is a standard that specifies at least 50 percent total effectiveness for ERVs, Energy consultant said.  The Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency also have various standards and regulations regarding energy recovery and IAQ.  Energy Consultant said two main obstacles lie in the way of more widespread use of ERVs: lack of knowledge and the need to reduce operating costs in the short term. Since building owners and facility managers rely for the most part on contractors to select and install heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment, if the contractors are not up-to-speed on ERV developments they may pick products that aren’t as energy-efficient as they could be. Also, Energy consultant noted, HVAC contractors work within budgets and therefore tend to buy equipment based on its price rather than long-term cost benefits. It therefore is important to educate contractors about ERVs, and some of that burden falls on manufacturers. The Green Building Council is also playing a role through its Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design program that evaluates buildings to determine the environmental performance during their entire lifecycle.  ERVs aren’t just good for the planet; they’re good for people, too. “The focus on IAQ is another key trend benefiting ERV, as people become increasingly conscious of the importance to maintain air quality through properly designed and managed HVAC systems,” Energy consultant said in the report.  When IAQ isn’t managed properly, people living or working in unhealthy buildings can develop sick building syndrome from pollutants in the air they breathe.  “With half of all illnesses attributed to indoor airborne contaminants, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has declared IAQ a public health priority,” Energy consultant said. “Ventilation with outdoor air is the only strategy that can simultaneously reduce the levels of all indoor pollutants.” 

Compiled by: Yehuda Draiman, Energy analyst – Northridge, CA

Global Warming – Man Made or Nature’s Cycle R8.

May 19, 2008 by yehudadraiman

Global Warming – Man Made or Nature’s Cycle R8. The debate:   Is the observed global warming natural or man made?Global Warming or natural climatic rhythm?Global Warming Man made or natural cycle? 

Compiled by Yehuda Draiman, Energy Analyst.

An extensive look at Global Warming – Cause and effect.The dominant greenhouse gas is WATER, not carbon dioxide. It is responsible for up to 95% of the so-called “greenhouse effect”. Carbon dioxide is only a minor player, and Man’s activities put only about 3% as much CO2 into the atmosphere yearly as does Nature. How does the atmosphere distinguish between them? Its concentration is believed to have increased from 0.00028 of the atmosphere to 0.00038 over the past couple of hundred years.

There are numerous pros and cons as to the cause of Global Warming.

After some study and research I share with you the various opinions.

 This consensus in this on-line article represents the views of some researchers and forecasters, but does not necessarily represent the views of all scientists. It was not the intention of this article to discount the presence of a human-induced global warming element or to attempt to claim that such an element is not present. There is a robust, on-going discussion on climate change within the scientific community. It takes a certain kind of gumption to stand up to the status quo.Folks who challenge the mainstream media and popular culture are subjected to some of the nastiest insults and character assassinations. And such retribution is nowhere more severe than for those who take issue with popular views about global warming.There are a number of very bright climatologists and meteorologists out there who believe that this century’s warming trend is neither critical nor man made. Now you can agree or disagree with these folks. But you can’t pretend that these folks are crazies or ill informed or just in it for the money. They believe that the models used by the “We’re all going to die!” global warming worriers are far too severe and fail to take enough natural factors into consideration in their climate models. For their audacity to take on the status quo, they have been censured, excoriated and labeled as lackeys for the oil companies.

One degree. On a thermometer, it doesn’t seem like much at all. But that degree has sparked intense debate among experts who monitor the temperature on Earth.

In a new report issued by a leading group of scientists and meteorologists, research shows the planet has warmed one degree during the last 100 years. That report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change asserts that Earth will continue to warm between 2 and 10 degrees during the next century.

Those researchers believe that global warming could be boosting the planet’s temperature. Global warming is a phenomenon of temperatures rising on Earth. Scientists have said that some human activities cause gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide to build up in the atmosphere. Those gases trap heat closer to Earth’s surface giving the planet a worldwide fever.

Many experts say two chemicals — carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide — are most responsible for global warming. Cars, trucks and factories around the world emit those chemicals everyday. Once in the atmosphere, those chemicals act as big reflectors, bouncing back sun rays to the Earth and warming the planet.

But there are scientists, climatologists and weather watchers who believe that the warming trend is not an aberrant threat, but part of a natural cycle of warming and cooling on Earth. “We just haven’t been around long enough to know if it’s a fact,” said CNN weather anchor Orelon Sidney. “The Earth is more than 4 billion years old and humans haven’t been around that long. So this could just be a part of cycle.”

The scientists who believe the Earth is warming say years of research are needed to determine why.

Dr. Lonnie Thompson, a researcher at the Byrd Polar Research Center located at Ohio State University, is among those attempting to discover the causes of global warming. He spends many months away from his home in search of answers.

Thompson’s latest trek to the Andes Mountains showed substantial changes in a glacier.

“The glacier we have been studying has been melting at an unbelievable rate,” Thompson said. “Where there was once ice, there is now a lake.” Thompson photographed the new lake and glacier to show “obvious changes in our world because of temperature increase,” he said. Thompson said a warmer earth could lead to more erratic weather. “If energy in the system — the heat on the Earth’s climate system –increases, then you’re going to have more water vapor. More water vapor feeds more storms — larger hurricanes, maybe larger snowstorms too.”

As a meteorology student at the University of Maryland, Antony Chen is among those who would watch for those weather changes. He is part of the next generation of researchers who will have to figure out what’s behind the cause of the temperature bump.

Chen says we have to look at the big picture then determine what changes people should make on the local level. “We need to know what’s going on in the atmosphere, the magnitude of changes we are making to our climate system,” Chen said. “Then we can start coming up with solutions.”

Professor Bruce Doddridge is one of Chen’s professors and is encouraged by the caliber of young people he’s seen entering the earth sciences. “I’m impressed with the variety of smart and intelligent people coming through that can do this work,” he said.

Doddridge concedes that there are many potential causes of global warming, but said he believes the new technology could help assess and solve the problem. “The issues are becoming more complicated,” Doddridge said, “but I think the tools we have to work with are becoming more sophisticated.”

Many experts say two chemicals — carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide — are most responsible for global warming. Cars, trucks and factories around the world emit those chemicals everyday. Once in the atmosphere, those chemicals act as big reflectors, bouncing back sun rays to the Earth and warming the planet.

But there are scientists, climatologists and weather watchers who believe that the warming trend is not an aberrant threat, but part of a natural cycle of warming and cooling on Earth. “We just haven’t been around long enough to know if it’s a fact,” said CNN weather anchor Orelon Sidney. “The Earth is more than 4 billion years old and humans haven’t been around that long. So this could just be a part of cycle.”

The scientists who believe the Earth is warming say years of research are needed to determine why.

Dr. Lonnie Thompson, a researcher at the Byrd Polar Research Center located at Ohio State University, is among those attempting to discover the causes of global warming. He spends many months away from his home in search of answers.

 

1. The authors of Unstoppable Global Warming – Every 1,500 Years, say that history, ice core studies and stalagmites all agree on a natural cycle at roughly that interval that is superimposed on the longer, stronger ice ages and interglacial phases.

They point as evidence of this natural cycle to the “Climate Optimum” – a period of warmer and wetter weather than the present Earth’s climate, which took place 9,000 years ago to 5,000 years ago, and a cooling event 2,600 years ago.

During the Roman warming period from 200 BC to around AD 600 North Africa and the Sahara were wetter and supported crops. In more recent times they point to the medieval warming of 900 to 1300, when Eric the Red’s descendant’s colonized Greenland and the Little Ice Age of 1300 to 1850 which saw the Norse dairy farmers on Greenland grow short from malnutrition and eventually die out.

Mr. Avery, a former US agriculture official whose celebrated earlier book was Saving the Planet with Pesticides and Plastic: The Environmental Triumph of High Yield Farming suggests that the natural cycle of warming and cooling may come from variations in cosmic rays which have been linked to cloud formation.

This theory was validated in a recent paper in a Royal Society journal by scientists from the Danish National Space Centre who showed that sub-atomic particles – cosmic rays from exploding stars – play a major role in making clouds. During the past century cosmic rays became scarcer as vigorous activity by the sun forced them away. So there was less cloud cover to reflect away sunlight and a warmer world, according to the Danish scientists.

2. Policymakers have been arguing for nearly a decade over what to do about global warming. Noticeably missing from this debate has been any mention of the fact that natural fluctuations in the Earth’s temperature, not Man, are the likely explanation for any recent warming.

Proponents of the global warming theory repeatedly cite a 1.5° F temperature increase over the last 150 years as evidence that man-made CO2 is dangerously heating up the planet and will cause huge flooding, severe storms, disease and a mass exodus of environmental refugees. Based on this, the Clinton Administration and its environmental allies want Congress to ratify a treaty that will hike consumer prices 40 percent and cost the American economy $3.3 trillion over 20 years. But the apocalyptic predictions on which they justify these drastic steps are totally unsubstantiated and ignore some fundamental truths about the Earth’s climatic behavior.

The fact is, the planet’s temperature is constantly rising and falling. To put the current warming trend in perspective, it’s important to understand the Earth’s geological behavior.

Over the last 700,000 years, the climate has operated on a relatively predictable schedule of 100,000-year glaciations cycles. Each glaciations cycle is typically characterized by 90,000 years of cooling, an ice age, followed by an abrupt warming period, called an interglacial, which lasts 10,000-12,000 years. The last ice age reached its coolest point 18,000 to 20,000 years ago when the average temperature was 9-12.6° F cooler than present. Earth is currently in a warm interglacial called the Holocene that began 10,700 years ago.

Although precise temperature readings over the entire period of geologic history are not available, enough is known to establish climatic trends. During the Holocene, there have been about seven major warming and cooling trends, some lasting as long as 3000 years, others as short as 650. Most interesting of all, however, is that the temperature variation in many of these periods averaged as much as 1.8° F, .3° F more than the temperature increase of the last 150 years. Furthermore, of the six major temperature variations occurring prior to the current era, three produced temperatures warmer than the present average temperature of 59° F while three produced cooler temperatures.

For example, when the Holocene began as the Earth was coming out of the last Ice Age around 8700 B.C., the average global temperature was about 6° F cooler than it is today. By 7500 B.C., the climate had warmed to 60° F, 1° F warmer than the current average temperature. However, the temperature fell again by nearly 2° F over the next 1,000 years, settling at an average of 1° F cooler than the current climate.

Between 6500 and 3500 B.C., the temperature increased from 58° F to 62° F. This is the warmest the Earth has been during the Holocene, which is why scientists refer to the period as the Holocene Maximum. Since the temperature of the Holocene Maximum is close to what global warming models project for the Earth by 2100, how Mankind faired during the era is instructive. The most striking fact is that it was during this period that the Agricultural Revolution began in the Middle East, laying the foundation for civilization. Yet, Greenhouse theory proponents claim the planet will experience severe environmental distress if the climate is that warm again.

Since the Holocene Maximum, the planet has continued to experience temperature fluctuations. In 900 A.D. the planet’s temperature roughly approximated today’s temperature. Then, between 900 and 1100 the climate dramatically warmed. Known as the Medieval Warm Period, the temperature rose by more than 1° F to an average of 60° or 61° F, as much as 2° F warmer than today. Again, the temperature during this period is similar to Greenhouse predictions for 2100, a prospect global warming theory proponents insist should be viewed with alarm. But judging by how Europe prospered during this era, there is little to be alarmed about. The warming that occurred between 1000 and 1350 caused the ice in the North Atlantic to retreat and permitted Norsemen to colonize Iceland and Greenland. Back then, Greenland was actually green. Europe emerged from the Dark Ages in a period that was characterized by bountiful harvests and great economic prosperity. So mild was the climate that wine grapes were grown in England and Nova Scotia.

The major climate change that followed the Medieval Warm Period is especially critical as it bears directly on how to assess our current warming period. Between 1200 and 1450, the temperature plunged to 58° F. After briefly warming, the climate continued to dramatically get colder after 1500. By 1650, the temperature hit a low of 57° F. This is regarded as the coldest point in the 10,000-year Holocene geological epoch. That is why the era between 1650 and 1850 is known as the Little Ice Age. It was during this time that mountain glaciers advanced in Switzerland and Scandinavia, forcing the abandonment of farms and villages. Rivers in London, St. Petersburg and Moscow froze over so thoroughly that people held winter fairs on the ice. There were serious crop failures, famines and disease due to the cooler climate. In America, New England had no summer in 1816. It wasn’t until 1860 that the temperature sufficiently warmed to cause the glaciers to retreat.

The significance of the Little Ice Age cannot be overestimated. The 1.5° F temperature increase over the last 150 years, so often cited as evidence of man-made warming, most likely represents a return to normal temperatures following a 400-year period of unusually cold weather. Even the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the chief proponent of the Kyoto Protocol global warming treaty signed in December 1997, concludes that: “The Little Ice Age came to an end only in the nineteenth century. Thus, some of the global warming since 1850 could be a recovery from the Little Ice Age rather than a direct result of human activities.”

Leading climate scientist Dr. Hugh Ellsaesser of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory says we may be in for an additional 1.8° F of warming over the next few centuries, regardless of Man’s activities. The result would be warmer nighttime and winter temperatures, fewer frosts and longer growing seasons. Since CO2 stimulates plant growth and lessens the need for water, we could also expect more bountiful harvests over the next couple of centuries. This is certainly not bad news to the developing nations of the world struggling to feed their populations.

Thus, far from being a self-induced disaster, global warming is the result of natural changes in the Earth’s climate that promises to yield humanity positive benefits. In the geological scheme of things, the warming is not even that dramatic compared to the more pronounced warming trends that occurred during the Agricultural Revolution and the early Middle Ages. Moreover, there is strong evidence that this long-needed warming is moderating. All things considered, global warming should be viewed for what it is: A gift from the often fickle force of Nature. Enjoy it while you can.

3. Global warming is a natural geological process that could begin to reverse itself within 10 to 20 years, predicts an Ohio State University researcher. The researcher suggests that atmospheric carbon dioxide — often thought of as a key “greenhouse gas” — is not the cause of global warming. The opposite is most likely to be true, according to Robert Essenhigh, E.G. Bailey Professor of Energy Conservation in Ohio State’s Department of Mechanical Engineering. It is the rising global temperatures that are naturally increasing the levels of carbon dioxide, not the other way around, he says.Essenhigh explains his position in a “viewpoint” article in the current issue of the journal Chemical Innovation, published by the American Chemical Society.Many people blame global warming on carbon dioxide sent into the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels in man-made devices such as automobiles and power plants. Essenhigh believes these people fail to account for the much greater amount of carbon dioxide that enters — and leaves — the atmosphere as part of the natural cycle of water exchange from, and back into, the sea and vegetation.“Many scientists who have tried to mathematically determine the relationship between carbon dioxide and global temperature would appear to have vastly underestimated the significance of water in the atmosphere as a radiation-absorbing gas,” Essenhigh argues. “If you ignore the water, you’re going to get the wrong answer.”How could so many scientists miss out on this critical bit of information, as Essenhigh believes? He said a National Academy of Sciences report on carbon dioxide levels that was published in 1977 omitted information about water as a gas and identified it only as vapor, which means condensed water or cloud, which is at a much lower concentration in the atmosphere; and most subsequent investigations into this area evidently have built upon the pattern of that report.For his hypothesis, Essenhigh examined data from various other sources, including measurements of ocean evaporation rates, man-made sources of carbon dioxide, and global temperature data for the last one million years.He cites a 1995 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a panel formed by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988 to assess the risk of human-induced climate change. In the report, the IPCC wrote that some 90 billion tons of carbon as carbon dioxide annually circulate between the earth’s ocean and the atmosphere, and another 60 billion tons exchange between the vegetation and the atmosphere.Compared to man-made sources’ emission of about 5 to 6 billion tons per year, the natural sources would then account for more than 95 percent of all atmospheric carbon dioxide, Essenhigh said.“At 6 billion tons, humans are then responsible for a comparatively small amount – less than 5 percent – of atmospheric carbon dioxide,” he said. “And if nature is the source of the rest of the carbon dioxide, then it is difficult to see that man-made carbon dioxide can be driving the rising temperatures. In fact, I don’t believe it does.”

4. Is human activity warming the Earth or do recent signs of climate change signal natural variations? In this feature article, scientists discuss the vexing ambiguities of our planet’s complex and unwieldy climate

Newspaper headlines trumpet record-breaking temperatures, dwindling sea ice, and retreating glaciers around the world. Concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, one of the greenhouse gases responsible for scalding temperatures on Venus and at least 33 degrees C of normal warming here on Earth, are on the rise. Our planet seems destined for a hot future!But is it really? Or are we simply experiencing a natural variation in Earth’s climate cycles that will return to “normal” in time?Correlations between rising CO2 levels and global surface temperatures suggest that our planet is on a one-way warming trend triggered by human activity. Indeed, studies by paleoclimatologists reveal that natural variability caused by changes in the Sun and volcanic eruptions can largely explain deviations in global temperature from 1000 AD until 1850 AD, near the beginning of the Industrial Era. After that, the best models require a human-induced greenhouse effect.In spite of what may seem persuasive evidence, many scientists are nonetheless skeptical. They argue that natural variations in climate are considerable and not well understood. The Earth has gone through warming periods before without human influence, they note. And not all of the evidence supports global warming. Air temperatures in the lower atmosphere have not increased appreciably, according to satellite data, and the sea ice around Antarctica has actually been growing for the last 20 years.It may surprise many people that science — the de facto source of dependable knowledge about the natural world — cannot deliver an unqualified, unanimous answer about something as important as climate change. Why is the question so thorny? The reason, say experts, is that Earth’s climate is complex and chaotic. It’s so unwieldy that researchers simply can’t conduct experiments to check their ideas in the usual way of science. They often rely, instead, on computer models. But such models are only as good as their inputs and programming, and today’s computer models are known to be imperfect.

Most scientists agree that no single piece of data will likely resolve the global warming debate. In the end, the best we can expect is a scientific consensus based on a preponderance of evidence.

5. 30 Natural Global Warming Episodes Have Occurred During the Past 5,000 Years. David Dilley of GWO has discovered a powerful natural forcing mechanism that controls global warming cycle, hurricane track landfalls, El Nino cycles and many other climate weather cycles. David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc., Ocala Florida, has completed groundbreaking research on Global Warming.  This research found that the current global warming episode is a “Natural Recurring Cycle”, and that this current cycle will begin to diminish as early as 2015, and no later than 2040.  Mr. Dilley’s 15-years of ongoing climate research has uncovered a very powerful external forcing mechanism that causes shifts in regional weather cycles, and the world’s climate.  This forcing mechanism is called “the Primary Forcing Trigger Mechanism”, or PFM.  The PFM is a cyclical forcing mechanism that can be forecast years in advance, or even traced back through the earth’s climate history.  The major influence of the PFM on the earth’s climate is that it causes the world’s dominating regional high-pressure systems to shift position, or become displaced from their normal seasonal position.  Because the PFM is cyclical, the earth’s weather and climate is likewise cyclical.  As an example of an induced PFM climate cycle, the subtropical high-pressure system in the central South Pacific normally causes the ocean’s water temperature to stay relatively cool in this region.  Dilley’s El Niño research (see link) explains that the PFM cycle induces a shift in the position of the high-pressure system where El Niños form.  The resulting wind shift then triggers the formation of an El Niño by inducing a rapid warming of sea surface temperatures.  Dilley says that research going back to 1915 showed 24 such PFM cycles and 24 El Niño occurrences. This research is currently under peer review and will go to a leading climate journal this summer. Further research by Dilley and Global Weather Oscillations, indicates that this same PFM forcing mechanism displaces high-pressure centers in such a way to control the tracks of hurricanes from one year to the next. (See hurricane link) Knowing how and why this forcing mechanism controls weather cycles opened the door to the ground breaking global warming research.  Mr. Dilley states that the current global warming cycle is without a doubt the result of a known external “natural” forcing cycle.  According to Dilley, most government officials, climatologists and meteorologists are looking only at the increase in temperatures and carbon dioxide (CO2) levels over the past 50 to 100 years. These correlations and findings are only representative during global warming episodes. When you take into account nearly 30 other global warming episodes over the past 5 thousand years, it becomes very apparent that CO2 levels cannot be the forcing mechanism that has caused global warming, but rather Long-term PFM climate forcing cycles. These cycles likely displace high-pressure systems and the polar jet stream northward during an approximate 200-year recurring PFM forcing cycle.the years 1050 to 1205 AD.  The peak warming of this cycle lasted 90 years from 1090 to 1180 AD, as delineated by the red box.  The second global warming cycle was from 1285 to 1415 AD, with a 65-year peak from 1315 to 1380.  The third global warming episode was from 1440 to 1590 with a 50-year peak from 1520 to 1570. The fourth was from 1700 to 1845 with a 45-year peak from 1740 to 1785.  Finally, the current global warming episode began about 1910 and the peak about 1950, or about 57 years ago. The graph and research indicates that each global warming cycle has duration of 130 to 160 years, and the peak of each cycle has duration of 50 to 90 years. Analyses of the 5 warming cycles and the history of PFM cycles, indicates that the current cycle is about the same duration as the one that occurred about 900-years ago.  Therefore, the current global warming cycle will run from 1910 to 2060, with the duration of the peak warming occurring between 1950 and 2015.  The peak warming will level off around 2015 and then begin diminishing rapidly by no later than the year 2030 to 2040.  Once cooling begins it will only take 20 to 30 years to cool to the lowest part of the cooling cycle, temperatures much like what was recorded in the 1800s.   In addition to the 5 global warming cycles found during the past 1000-years, it should be noted here that a total of approximately 30 global warming cycles have occurred during the past 5000 years, with the warmest cycle occurring approximately every 1000-years, and the peak of the warmest cycle having a duration of 60 to 90 years.  Referring to the 5000-year graph, the present long-term warming cycle can be seen on the right hand side of the graph, and 4 other long-term warm cycles date back 5000-years on the left side of the graph. Analyses of the 5000-year graph indicates that long-term warming cycles have durations as short as 500-years as seen in the 2 cycles labeled A, to as long as 1000-years as seen in cycle C nearly 4500-years ago. Further analyses of cycle durations indicates that if the current long-term warming cycle which began in the year 1500 AD was of the same duration as cycle A, the peak of the current warming would of ended back in the year 1750, and it did not.  In addition, if the current cycle was the same duration as cycle B, the peak warming of our current global warming cycle would have ended in the year 1900, and it did not. Now let’s take a look at cycle C. in the next paragraph..Further research by Research by Global Weather Oscillations indicates that the PFM climate forcing cycle normally occurs in cycles of 5.  Therefore looking back 5 warming cycles and 5 PFM cycles, we find cycle C that occurred 4,500 years ago and had a 1000 – year duration of the entire warm cycle. Using the mid-point of this cycle (500-years), the current long-term warming that began around the year 1500 AD will peak around the year 2000 AD, and end by 2500 AD.    Reconstructed Carbon Dioxide CO2 and Temperature Proxies Past 400,000 Years. The graph below shows reconstructed Ice Core temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations over the Antartica from near present time back 400,000 years.  Of particular importance is that this graph shows 5 Natural Cycles during the past 400,000 years and as temperatures rise the carbon dioxide concentrations also naturally rise, thus mirroring the cyclical temperatures.  It is well known throughout the scientific community that warmer temperatures can hold more water vapor, and water vapor absorbs and holds carbon dioxide. Thus these 5 Natural Cycles during the past 400,000 years mirror the 200-year global warming cycles shown early.  Therefore, it is likely that the peak of all  30 global warming cycles during the past 4,000 years likewise had carbon dioxide concentrations very similar to the values found today. Thus, carbon dioxide levels are not the cause of global warming….all global warming cycles are “Natural”.Natural Global Warming Cycles …. Putting it all together The current long-term 1000-year warming cycle began about the year 1500 AD and will continue to near 2500 AD.  This current long-term cycle will consist of 5 cyclical short-term global warming and cooling episodes.  The world is now in the third of the 5 short-term cycles, and the warmest of the 5.  The first short-term global warming episode peaked between 1520 and 1570 AD, followed by a cooling period until the next global warming episode peaked between 1740 and 1785.  Temperatures remained cool throughout the 1800s to early 1900s, and then the third short-term global warming episode began.  The peak of this current global warming episode began in earnest around 1950 and will level off as early as 2015, and no later than 2030-40.  Then within 20 years temperatures will cool rapidly to the same levels as seen in the 1800s. The global warming cycles are approximate 200-year cycles, so the next global warming cycle will peak about 150-years after the end of the current cycle, or about the year 2200.  This will be the 4th of 5 cycles within the current 1000-year primary warm cycle, and it will not be as warm as the current episode.  Global warming research has found 5 natural global warming cycles during the past 1000-years, and approximately 30 global warming cycles during the past 5 thousand years.Actions – While we argue a lot about details on how bad global warming is and how responsible mankind is for it, we did agree that individuals acting on their own to conserve energy or clean the environment is always preferred to a government mandated, centralized policy of coercion. In that respect, I was able to support his project of working with Corporate America and other companies to give consumers incentives to buy energy-saving light bulbs—a private sector initiative that he claims will save a lot of energy and produce less CO2.Cleaner burning energy that takes some of the profit out of the pockets of our “friends” the Saudis wouldn’t be such a bad thing. It may not be much, but it’s a start and a way to bring two divergent sides of the global warming debate together.Perhaps a non-coercive method of voluntary action on CO2 emissions will work. The one thing we’re learning from the example of Europe’s Kyoto experiment is that government coercion doesn’t work. Freedom of choice is not only right, it’s practical!

In conclusion – let the reader make up his own conclusions.

 

Data compiled by Yehuda Draiman, Energy Analyst – 12/20/2007 P.S.

Global Warming scientist skeptics list is growing…

6/23/2007Many former believers in catastrophic man-made global warming have recently reversed themselves and are now climate skeptics.  The names below are just a sampling of the prominent scientists who have spoken out recently to oppose the perceived alarmism of man-made global warming. The media’s climate fear factor seemingly grows louder even as the latest science grows less and less alarming by the day.  It is also worth noting that the proponents of climate fears are increasingly attempting to suppress dissent by skeptics. Once Believers, Now SkepticsGeophysicist Dr. Claude Allegre, a top geophysicist and French Socialist who has authored more than 100 scientific articles and written 11 books and received numerous scientific awards including the Goldschmidt Medal from the Geochemical Society of the United States, converted from climate alarmist to skeptic in 2006.Geologist Bruno Wiskel of the University of Alberta recently reversed his view of man-made climate change and instead became a global warming skeptic. Wiskel was once such a big believer in man-made global warming that he set out to build a “Kyoto house” in honor of the UN sanctioned Kyoto Protocol which was signed in 1997. Astrophysicist Dr. Nir Shaviv, one of Israel’s top young award winning scientists, recanted his belief that manmade emissions were driving climate change. “”Like many others, I was personally sure that CO2 is the bad culprit in the story of global warming. But after carefully digging into the evidence, I realized that things are far more complicated than the story sold to us by many climate scientists or the stories regurgitated by the media. In fact, there is much more than meets the eye,” Shaviv said in February 2, 2007 Canadian National Post article. Mathematician & engineer Dr. David Evans, who did carbon accounting for the Australian Government, recently detailed his conversion to a skeptic. “I devoted six years to carbon accounting, building models for the Australian government to estimate carbon emissions from land use change and forestry. When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty conclusive, but since then new evidence has weakened the case that carbon emissions are the main cause. I am now skeptical,” Evans wrote in an April 30, 2007 blog. “But after 2000 the evidence for carbon emissions gradually got weaker — better temperature data for the last century, more detailed ice core data, then laboratory evidence that cosmic rays precipitate low clouds,” Evans wrote.  “As Lord Keynes famously said, ‘When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?’” he added. Climate researcher Dr. Tad Murty, former Senior Research Scientist for Fisheries and Oceans in Canada, also reversed himself from believer in man-made climate change to a skeptic.  “I stated with a firm belief about global warming, until I started working on it myself,” Murty explained on August 17, 2006.  “I switched to the other side in the early 1990’s when Fisheries and Oceans Canada asked me to prepare a position paper and I started to look into the problem seriously,” Murty explained.Botanist Dr. David Bellamy, a famed UK environmental campaigner, former lecturer at Durham University and host of a popular UK TV series on wildlife, recently converted into a skeptic after reviewing the science and now calls global warming fears “poppycock.” According to a May 15, 2005 article in the UK Sunday Times, Bellamy said “global warming is largely a natural phenomenon.  The world is wasting stupendous amounts of money on trying to fix something that can’t be fixed.” “The climate-change people have no proof for their claims. They have computer models which do not prove anything,” Bellamy added. Climate scientist Dr. Chris de Freitas of The University of Auckland, N.Z., also converted from a believer in man-made global warming to a skeptic. “At first I accepted that increases in human caused additions of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere would trigger changes in water vapor etc. and lead to dangerous ‘global warming,’ But with time and with the results of research, I formed the view that, although it makes for a good story, it is unlikely that the man-made changes are drivers of significant climate variation.” de Freitas wrote on August 17, 2006.Meteorologist Dr. Reid Bryson, the founding chairman of the Department of Meteorology at University of Wisconsin (now the Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, was pivotal in promoting the coming ice age scare of the 1970’s ( See Time Magazine’s 1974 article “Another Ice Age” citing Bryson: & see Newsweek’s 1975 article “The Cooling World” citing Bryson) has now converted into a leading global warming skeptic. In February 8, 2007 Bryson dismissed what he terms “sky is falling” man-made global warming fears. Bryson, was on the United Nations Global 500 Roll of Honor and was identified by the British Institute of Geographers as the most frequently cited climatologist in the world. “Before there were enough people to make any difference at all, two million years ago, nobody was changing the climate, yet the climate was changing, okay?” Bryson told the May 2007 issue of Energy Cooperative News. “All this argument is the temperature going up or not, it’s absurd. Of course it’s going up. It has gone up since the early 1800s, before the Industrial Revolution, because we’re coming out of the Little Ice Age, not because we’re putting more carbon dioxide into the air,” Bryson said. Global warming author and economist Hans H.J. Labohm started out as a man-made global warming believer but he later switched his view after conducting climate research.  Labohm wrote on August 19, 2006, “I started as a anthropogenic global warming believer, then I read the [UN’s IPCC] Summary for Policymakers and the research of prominent skeptics.”  “After that, I changed my mind,” Labohn explained. Labohn co-authored the 2004 book “Man-Made Global Warming: Unraveling a Dogma,” with chemical engineer Dick Thoenes who was the former chairman of the Royal Netherlands Chemical Society. Labohm was one of the 60 scientists who wrote an April 6, 2006 letter urging withdrawal of Kyoto to Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper which stated in part, “’Climate change is real’ is a meaningless phrase used repeatedly by activists to convince the public that a climate catastrophe is looming and humanity is the cause.Paleoclimatologist Tim Patterson, of Carlton University in Ottawa converted from believer in C02 driving the climate change to a skeptic. “I taught my students that CO2 was the prime driver of climate change,” Patterson  wrote on April 30, 2007. Patterson said his “conversion” happened following his research on “the nature of paleo-commercial fish populations in the NE Pacific.” “[My conversion from believer to climate skeptic] came about approximately 5-6 years ago when results began to come in from a major NSERC (Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada) Strategic Project Grant where I was PI (principle investigator),” Patterson explained. “Over the course of about a year, I switched allegiances,” he wrote.Physicist Dr. Zbigniew Jaworowski, chairman of the Central Laboratory for the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Radiological Protection in Warsaw, took a scientific journey from a believer of man-made climate change in the form of global cooling in the 1970’s all the way to converting to a skeptic of current predictions of catastrophic man-made global warming. “At the beginning of the 1970s I believed in man-made climate cooling, and therefore I started a study on the effects of industrial pollution on the global atmosphere, using glaciers as a history book on this pollution,” Dr. Jaworowski, wrote on August 17, 2006. “With the advent of man-made warming political correctness in the beginning of 1980s, I already had a lot of experience with polar and high altitude ice, and I have serious problems in accepting the reliability of ice core CO2 studies,” Jaworowski added. Paleoclimatologist Dr. Ian D. Clark, professor of the Department of Earth Sciences at University of Ottawa, reversed his views on man-made climate change after further examining the evidence. “I used to agree with these dramatic warnings of climate disaster. I taught my students that most of the increase in temperature of the past century was due to human contribution of C02. The association seemed so clear and simple. Increases of greenhouse gases were driving us towards a climate catastrophe,” Clark said in a 2005 documentary “Climate Catastrophe Cancelled: What You’re Not Being Told About the Science of Climate Change.” “However, a few years ago, I decided to look more closely at the science and it astonished me. In fact there is no evidence of humans being the cause. There is, however, overwhelming evidence of natural causes such as changes in the output of the sun. Environmental geochemist Dr. Jan Veizer, professor emeritus of University of Ottawa, converted from believer to skeptic after conducting scientific studies of climate history. “I simply accepted the (global warming) theory as given,” Veizer wrote on April 30, 2007 about predictions that increasing C02 in the atmosphere was leading to a climate catastrophe. “The final conversion came when I realized that the solar/cosmic ray connection gave far more consistent picture with climate, over many time scales, than did the CO2 scenario,” Veizer wrote. .The makers of the documentary The Great Global Warming Swindle have made many science documentaries before. The thing they found most shocking when they started to make this one, was the weakness of the case for man made global warming, and the quantity and quality of the evidence which flatly contradicts it. http://greatglobalwarmingswindle.co.uk/  La Nina threatens to wreck world’s weather‘Fertilising’ oceans with iron may combat climate change | Damage to the planet ‘is already inevitable’Experts predict a run of severe weather in the coming months, with devastating floods striking some parts of the world while severe droughts afflict other regions, as the climate phenomenon known as La Niña gathers momentum. A chronic drought afflicting southern California and many southeastern states of America could be exacerbated, with Los Angeles heading for its driest year on record. In contrast, western Canada and the northwestern US could turn colder and snowier. Mozambique, southeast Africa, and northern Brazil may face exceptionally heavy rains and floods, while southern Brazil and much of Argentina suffer drought. La Niña could even rearrange the pattern of sea ice around the Antarctic, pushing the ice pack towards the Pacific side of the continent. Already, torrential rains have triggered severe floods across a huge swath of Central Africa, stretching from Senegal in the west to Uganda in the east. Related LinksWarm waters may trigger Mediterranean hurricane Rupa Kumar Kolli, chief of world applications at the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in Geneva, predicts that the worst of La Niña is yet to come. “This La Niña is now in its developing phase and getting stronger, and we can expect it to peak this coming December and January,” he said. Whether this episode of La Niña will make itself felt in Britain and continental Europe this winter is not certain. “We tend to get a mild end to winter with La Niña, but it’s not a strong signal,” said Adam Scaife, at the Hadley Centre of the Met Office in Exeter. Met Office scientists have found that La Niña is likely to have played a part in the abysmal British summer. By upsetting the usual track of the high-altitude jet stream towards Britain, it delivered barrages of slow-moving Atlantic depressions with torrents of rain. La Niña may also have been involved in the spectacular Asian monsoon this summer, leading to floods that killed about 1,000 people in India and Bangladesh. And it allows hurricanes to develop – already this month the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico have experienced two monstrous Category 5 storms. Another hurricane broke the record for the fastest intensification of a storm. La Niña occurs when the tropical seas of the Pacific off the coast of Latin America cool down, while the waters turn warmer towards Australia, the Philippines and Indonesia. That lurch in ocean temperatures can send weather systems into havoc over vast areas, delivering huge deluges of rain over the Far East and tropical Australia, while western parts of Latin America turn much drier than usual. This is the flip side of El Niño, although La Niña lasts for a shorter time, usually no more than a year. The way that La Niña casts its spell over the globe, from the Pacific to the rest of the world, is known as a “tele-connection”. By disrupting sea temperatures, pressure systems and winds over the Pacific, it interferes with the atmospheric circulation around the tropics. This sends out waves in the atmosphere, like casting a stone into a pond, which can change the strength and position of jet stream winds several miles high. In this way the Pacific can have a huge impact on the weather far from the tropics.   We really DO NOT know that carbon dioxide is causing climate change. There are several alternative suggested causes and the current warming (which seems to have stalled around 1998) is probably more likely a continuation of the warming that has taken place since the end of the Little Ice Age, from around 1850 (which by no coincidence is the starting year for Gore’s temperature chart that supposedly shows alarming warming).The dominant greenhouse gas is WATER, not carbon dioxide. It is responsible for up to 95% of the so-called “greenhouse effect”. Carbon dioxide is only a minor player, and Man’s activities put only about 3% as much CO2 into the atmosphere yearly as does Nature. How does the atmosphere distinguish between them? Its concentration is believed to have increased from 0.00028 of the atmosphere to 0.00038 over the past couple of hundred years. If the Kyoto Accord were put into effect…heck, if ALL manmade CO2 emissions were stopped immediately…there would be no discernible temperature effect 50 and 100 years from now. (As an aside, we don’t even have accurate ground-level temperature measurements over most of the world.) The scare tactics are based on glorified video games and are not to be trusted to the extent of spending billions of dollars and damaging our economies. Canada, and every other country, would be foolish to take heroic action on the basis of shonky “everybody-knows” pseudo-science. Even the much-quoted IPCC reports are more political than scientific and should be approached with great caution as a source of information.Ian L. McQueen Here’s how Essenhigh sees the global temperature system working: As temperatures rise, the carbon dioxide equilibrium in the water changes, and this releases more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. According to this scenario, atmospheric carbon dioxide is then an indicator of rising temperatures — not the driving force behind it. Essenhigh attributes the current reported rise in global temperatures to a natural cycle of warming and cooling. He examined data that Cambridge University geologists Nicholas Shackleton and Neil Opdyke reported in the journal Quaternary Research in 1973, which found that global temperatures have been oscillating steadily, with an average rising gradually, over the last one million years — long before human industry began to release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Opdyke is now at the University of Florida. According to Shackleton and Opdyke’s data, average global temperatures have risen less than one degree in the last million years, though the amplitude of the periodic oscillation has now risen in that time from about 5 degrees to about 10 degrees, with a period of about 100,000 years. “Today, we are simply near a peak in the current cycle that started about 25,000 years ago,” Essenhigh explained. As to why highs and lows follow a 100,000 year cycle, the explanation Essenhigh uses is that the Arctic Ocean acts as a giant temperature regulator, an idea known as the “Arctic Ocean Model.” This model first appeared over 30 years ago and is well presented in the 1974 book Weather Machine: How our weather works and why it is changing, by Nigel Calder, a former editor of New Scientist magazine. According to this model, when the Arctic Ocean is frozen over, as it is today, Essenhigh said, it prevents evaporation of water that would otherwise escape to the atmosphere and then return as snow. When there is less snow to replenish the Arctic ice cap, the cap may start to shrink. That could be the cause behind the retreat of the Arctic ice cap that scientists are documenting today, Essenhigh said. As the ice cap melts, the earth warms, until the Arctic Ocean opens again. Once enough water is available by evaporation from the ocean into the atmosphere, snows can begin to replenish the ice cap. At that point, the Arctic ice begins to expand, the global temperature can then start to reverse, and the earth can start re-entry to a new ice age. According to Essenhigh’s estimations, Earth may reach a peak in the current temperature profile within the next 10 to 20 years, and then it could begin to cool into a new ice age. Essenhigh knows that his scientific opinion is a minority one. As far as he knows, he’s the only person who’s linked global warming and carbon dioxide in this particular way. But he maintains his evaluations represent an improvement on those of the majority opinion, because they are logically rigorous and includes water vapor as a far more significant factor than in other studies. “If there are flaws in these propositions, I’m listening,” he wrote in his Chemical Innovation paper. “But if there are objections, let’s have them with the numbers.” Adapted from materials provided by Ohio State University. 

A Brief History of Ice Ages and Warming

Global warming started long before the “Industrial Revolution” and the invention of the internal combustion engine. Global warming began 18,000 years ago as the earth started warming its way out of the Pleistocene Ice Age– a time when much of North America, Europe, and Asia lay buried beneath great sheets of glacial ice.

Earth’s climate and the biosphere have been in constant flux, dominated by ice ages and glaciers for the past several million years. We are currently enjoying a temporary reprieve from the deep freeze.

Approximately every 100,000 years Earth’s climate warms up temporarily. These warm periods, called interglacial periods, appear to last approximately 15,000 to 20,000 years before regressing back to a cold ice age climate. At year 18,000 and counting our current interglacial vacation from the Ice Age is much nearer its end than its beginning.

Global warming during Earth’s current interglacial warm period has greatly altered our environment and the distribution and diversity of all life. For example:

Approximately 15,000 years ago the earth had warmed sufficiently to halt the advance of glaciers, and sea levels worldwide began to rise.

By 8,000 years ago the land bridge across the Bering Strait was drowned, cutting off the migration of men and animals to North America.

Since the end of the Ice Age, Earth’s temperature has risen approximately 16 degrees F and sea levels have risen a total of 300 feet! Forests have returned where once there was only ice.

 Is there a scientific consensus about global warming?All climate scientists accept that there are more greenhouse gases in the air than there were, and that in consequence the world will warm somewhat. There is no consensus on the central question of how much warming there will be. The main area of dispute is about the magnitude of the temperature effect of carbon dioxide. Arrhenius (1896) was the first to calculate the effect of doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide, concluding that global temperature would rise by 8C.In the 1970s, experiments showed that at the Earth’s surface the principal absorption bands of atmospheric CO2 were saturated, and it was thought that a doubling of CO2 might raise temperature by as little as 0.5C. However, subsequent experiments indicated that in the much thinner air and much lower temperature at the tropopause – the top of the main atmospheric layer, around 5 to 11 miles up – the secondary absorption bands of CO2 were not fully saturated. Some of the outgoing, long-wave radiation from the Earth’s surface would be intercepted at the tropopause and scattered back into the troposphere. The UN’s 1990 and 1996 Assessment Reports suggested that additional warming of 4.4 watts per square metre per second would occur. The 2001 report cut this figure to 3.7 watts. However, it is not clear how much of this additional energy reaches the surface. A submission to the UN by Dr. Hugh Elsaesser suggested that only 1.5 watts would reach the surface.See also De Laat et al. (2004) and Etheridge et al. (1996) for a discussion of man’s contribution to the greenhouse effect.Leading climate scientists who strongly disagree with the view that additional carbon dioxide in the air will have the large effect on the climate suggested by the UN include Professor Richard Lindzen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who recently received a £10,000 prize for courage in opposingconventional thinking. Some 41 scientists recently wrote to the Telegraph to say they were not part of, and were not convinced by, the “global warming” consensus.    Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years by Dennis T. Avery, S. Fred Singer The advertising for the book says: “”Singer and Avery present in popular language supported by in-depth scientific evidence the compelling concept that global temperatures have been rising mostly or entirely because of a natural cycle. Unstoppable Global Warming explains why we’re warming, why it’s not very dangerous, and why we can’t stop it anyway.”Reviewer: Crosslands (Maryland USA) wrote: Excellent Resource, November 13, 2006Mrs. Avery and Singer provide an excellent readable and well documented book on the global warming hoax. The reader can only conclude that this book is an invaluable resource on the topic of global warming. The work refers to a vast amount of scientific research in a wide variety of scientific journals indicating a natural sunspot magnetic wave is causing what little global warming exists. Man created carbon dixoide has very little effect on the earth’s climate.Avery and Singer go further by providing an in depth expose of the fallacious research that alledgedly supports man made global warming. In particular the authors make an incisive investigation into the so called hockey stick hypothesis of unprecedented recent warming hoax widely enunciated by the UN’s climate change panel. This hoax was first exposed by two skilled and courageous Canadian researchers – McIntyre and McKitrick.Pseudoscientists and others with a vested interest in controlling the global economy by use of the global warming hoax will not like this work. However informed readers concerned with human welfare and human progress will find this book invaluable. This book should be read by all Amercians and really by everone else in the world.  There is another theory of global warming and cooling that Gore does not address in An Inconvenient Truth. The Solar/Cosmic Ray Theory posits that cosmic rays, not humans, cause climate change. The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change (2007) by Henrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder is the first book to be published on this subject. Svensmark proposed this theory in 1996 and supplies the scientific input for the book. Calder, a British science writer, “strung the words together,” as he puts it. He does this very well and explains Svensmark’s theory in an engaging and easily understandable way. It will be published in the U.S. March 25 (I obtained my copy from the UK, where it was published last month).

The Solar/Cosmic Ray Theory says that cosmic rays make clouds. Exploding stars continually spray the galaxy with cosmic rays, which consist of protons, alpha particles (helium nuclei), electrons, and muons (heavy electrons). The muons in this mix of atomic bullets make low-level (below 8,000 feet) clouds. They do this by knocking electrons off atoms and molecules in the air, and these liberated electrons seed the formation “cloud condensation nuclei.” Water vapor in the atmosphere condenses on these specks to form cloud water droplets. The wet clouds thus formed block sunlight and reflect its rays back into space, which has a cooling effect. In 2006, Svensmark and colleagues showed experimentally how it is done, which involves adding sulfuric acid to these condensation nuclei. (Plankton, microscopic plants in the ocean and to a much lesser extent volcanoes and fossil fuels, continually restock the atmosphere with sulfur.)

The sun’s magnetic field encloses its planets in a magnetic solar wind (the heliosphere) that shields us from many of the cosmic rays that exploding stars shoot our way. Sunspots, dark spots made by pools of intense magnetism seen through a telescope, indicate heightened magnetic activity, which deflects more cosmic rays away from Earth. During the 20th century the sun’s magnetic shield more than doubled, and the sun had a lot of sunspots. Fewer cosmic rays reached Earth to make clouds, and global temperatures rose. When the sun’s magnetic activity wanes and sunspots disappear, more cosmic rays hit the Earth’s atmosphere to make clouds; and the globe cools. The Solar/Cosmic Ray Theory of climate change explains observations made over the last 400 years since the advent of the telescope that correlate sunspots with global warming and cooling.

The Solar/Cosmic Ray Theory explains climate change on a geologic time scale. Our solar system in its rotation around the center of the Milky Way Galaxy passes through one of its spiral arms every 135 million years. These arms contain high levels of cosmic rays. Astrophysicist Nir Shaviv and geologist Ján Veizer in “Celestrial Driver of Phanerozoic Climate?” (Geological Society of America Today 2003;13:4-10) and Veizer in “Celestial Climate Driver: A Perspective from Four Billion Years of the Carbon Cycle” (Geoscience Canada 2005;32:13-30) show that the variability in the Earth’s temperature over the past 500 million years correlates well with the intensity of cosmic rays hitting the planet when it passes in and out of the spiral arms of the Milky Way. They found that at one point atmospheric CO2 levels were 18 times higher than they are today, and they were 10 times higher when the planet was an “icehouse” during the Ordovician glacial period (450 million years ago).

During one warm period, 50 million years ago, the weather in the arctic was like that in Florida today. The Arctic Ocean was free of ice year-round and was populated by alligators and turtles. Axel Heiberg Island, in the high Canadian arctic 600 miles from the North Pole, has a well-preserved fossil forest (discovered in 1985), in what once was a semi-tropical swamp. At the other extreme, 2.2 billion years ago, and several times more recently, the planet was covered in ice down to the equator, making it a “Snowball Earth.” Planetary factors that have played a role in these climate changes include the position of drifting continents and the evolving composition of the atmosphere.

Other cycles that drive climate change include the Earth’s 100,000-year elliptical orbit around the sun and its 41,000-year axial tilt cycle. (In the most elliptical phase of the Earth’s orbit, the sun’s rays must travel 3 percent farther to reach the planet. The Earth’s axial tilt ranges from 22.1 to 24.5 degrees and is currently at 23 degrees.) And then there is the 1,500-year solar cycle.

S. Fred Singer and Dennis T. Avery describe the 1,500-year solar warming and cooling climate cycle in their book Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years (2007). It has 528 references, a glossary, and an index. This well written book is arguably the best book to date on the politics and science of global warming. In addition to presenting evidence for the 1,500-year solar cycle, first proposed by European researchers in 1996, the authors address both the Greenhouse and Solar/Cosmic Ray theories of climate change.

The sun’s role in climate change is due not so much to changes in intensity of its visible and/or invisible rays, or irradiance, but to its magnetic effect on cosmic rays. Changes in the sun’s magnetic activity have a four-fold greater effect on the Earth’s temperature than variations in its irradiance.

Today’s global warming is part of a natural 1,500-year, plus or minus 500-year, solar cycle operating for at least a million years. The Earth’s climate has warmed and cooled nine times in the past 12,000 years, in lock step with the waxing and waning of the sun’s magnetic activity (Science 2001;294[7 December]:2130-2136). Over the last 1,200 years there has been a “Medieval Warming” (900-1300), when Greenland was green; a “Little Ice Age” (1300-1850), when New York harbor froze, and people could walk from Manhattan across the ice to Staten Island a mile away (in 1780); and the current global warming (1850-?). Rather than “global warming,” a better term for this phase of the solar cycle is “Modern Warming.” Since 1850, temperatures have risen 0.8 degrees C, most rapidly in 1850-1870 and 1920-1940. Temperatures in the 1,500-year solar cycle fluctuate within a 4 degree C range – two degrees above and two degrees below the norm.

The Modern Warming is not confined to this planet. Mars, Jupiter, Pluto, and Triton (Neptune’s largest moon) in the solar system are also warming.

It is not surprising that the former vice president did not address the Solar/Cosmic Ray Theory of Climate Change in An Inconvenient Truth. This “documentary,” as the Christian Science Monitor notes, is really a docuganda, propaganda disguised as documentary. It manipulates the audience, with alarming images and a skewed presentation of facts, into believing that humans cause global warming and that “polluting” the atmosphere with carbon dioxide will have catastrophic consequences. Unlike a true documentary, which seeks to inform the audience about a given state of affairs in a balanced and unbiased fashion, in An Inconvenient Truth Gore ignores or misrepresents evidence that refutes the human-caused Greenhouse Theory. Addressing competing theories on global warming in an even-handed way is not his intent.

Christopher Horner, in his recently published book The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming and Environmentalism (2007), gives a lively account of the data Gore omits that contradict his global warming alarmism, especially with regard to hurricane frequency and severity and the increase in weather-related damages. He also addresses the film’s misrepresentations and some outright falsehoods.

The discredited “hockey stick” graph of the Earth’s temperature over the last 1,000 years is one of them. This widely publicized and cited graph reported by Mann and colleagues in 1998/1999 expunges the Medieval Warming and Little Ice Age from the climate record. By getting rid of these two phases of the most recent solar cycle, they make the temperature for the first 900 years relatively flat and unchanged, with the rise in temperature in the 20th century on the graph made to look like the blade of a hockey stick. This graph so constructed matches that of atmospheric CO2 levels during this time period, which remained unchanged for 900 years until they began their rapid rise in the 20th century. Although now acknowledged by climate scientists to be false, Gore nevertheless makes this hockey stick graph the centerpiece of his “documentary.” (Horner’s colleague, Marlo Lewis, has put together an excellent critique of this film on PowerPoint slides, available here.)

Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years, in a tightly woven and sober manner, and The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming and Environmentalism, with rapier wit, expose the flaws in the human-caused Greenhouse Theory. The Solar/Cosmic Ray Theory presented in The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change is more convincing.

At CERN, Europe’s particle-physics laboratory in Geneva, researchers are building the world’s most powerful particle accelerator, the $2.4 billion Large Hadron Collider. In the upcoming CLOUD experiment (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) led by Jasper Kirby, investigators will generate high-energy particle beams in this accelerator simulating cosmic rays that they will use to validate and better understand the connection between cosmic rays and clouds.

Al Gore tells us in An Inconvenient Truth that he has given this lecture more than 1,000 times around the world. To help solve the climate crisis (his term for global warming), as a “recovering politician,” he has gone on a crusade against CO2. Gore and his fellow climate alarmists do not want anything to do with CLOUD and wish it would go away. As Calder recounts in The Chilling Stars: A New Theory of Climate Change, climate scientists wedded to the greenhouse theory were able to block it when Kirby proposed doing this experiment in 2000; but now, in 2007, with CERN’s backing and funding secured, CLOUD will come online in 2010.

A basic rule of investigative journalism and criminal investigation is “Follow the Money,” or as Cicero put it, “Cui bono?” (“To whose benefit?,” literally, “[being] good to whom?”).

Al Gore profits handsomely from his climate crisis activities. Validation of the Solar/Cosmic Ray Theory poses a major threat to this source of income. He will not disclose his speaking fees, but he reportedly received $250,000 for a speech that he gave in Saudi Arabia recently, and his average speaking fee for his global warming lectures is said to be $50,000 to $100,000. Gore is also a founding partner and Chairman of Generation Investment Management (GIM), a firm that “manage[s] the assets of institutional investors… as well as those of select high net worth individuals.” [Emphasis added.] GIM invests in companies poised to cash in on CO2-caused global warming solutions, such as government subsidized solar and wind alternative-energy ventures and projects that reduce energy consumption around the globe.

The day after he won his Academy Award The Tennessean reported that Gore’s electrical and natural gas bills for his home in Nashville in 2006 were $27,360. This amount of energy, all of it generated from fossil fuels, is more than 20 times than that consumed by the average American household. A spokesperson for Gore pointed out that he buys “carbon offsets” to pay for his large “carbon footprint.” Gore invests these offset funds in GIM, the company he chairs; and his apocalyptic climate forecasts (reinforced by those currently being made by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scare citizens and government leaders around the world and persuade them to invest in alternative energy programs, raising the value of GIM’s privately held shares.

Can an individual who stands to make millions from the CO2 global warming paradigm be trusted to present an unbiased review of this subject and view with an open mind alternative theories of climate change?

Global warming is now a $5 billion industry, which benefits the government and its politicians and bureaucrats, environmental activists, the media, executives and shareholders of “green” industries, and climate scientists. Businesses profit by gaming the regulatory and planned “cap and trade” process rather than have to make money by producing things people want. The (“good news is no news”) media shamelessly plays along and profits by frightening people. And we see how the movement’s most prominent activist, former Vice President Al Gore benefits. Climate scientists are awarded $1.7 billion a year in government grants to study climate change, but under the condition that these scientists continue to support the “consensus” or lose their funding. Climate scientist Richard Lindzen, in Climate of Fear, writes : “Scientists who dissent from the alarmism have seen their grant funds disappear, their work derided, and themselves libeled as industry stooges, scientific hacks or worse. Consequently, lies about climate change gain credence even when they fly in the face of the science that supposedly is their basis.”

The global warming scare enables government to intervene and extend its control over people’s lives. The House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee, looking for ways to keep Social Security and Medicare afloat and balance the budget, are investigating proposals for a carbon tax, under the pretext of cutting down on Greenhouse emissions.

Gore barely mentions the Kyoto Protocol in his film and says nothing about what sacrifices people will have to make in order to reduce CO2 emissions. He does say, however, that combating CO2-induced global warming will take a commitment similar to what the country had to make to win World War II. At some point in this climate war the government will ration CO2 and issue “carbon credits” – CO2 ration cards. In World War II Americans had to have the appropriate ration card to purchase gasoline, tires, coffee, sugar, meat, and shoes; a certificate to purchase a stove; and an authorization for vacation travel. At the height of the War on CO2 global governance, which only a socialist state can provide, will be required to rein in CO2 emissions, with international inspectors at one’s doorstep prosecuting and confiscating property of people and industries that make “greedy [CO2-producing] choices,” like using an air-conditioner and driving a SUV.

Government leaders, environmental activists, and “select high net worth individuals” (including, of course, Hollywood celebrities) will not be inconvenienced by the strictures on CO2 emissions government imposes. In medieval times the nobility invoked sumptuary laws to limit what it considered to be conspicuous consumption of the bourgeoisie. Carbon offsets in the CO2 war will create a de-facto sumptuary law rendering the elite exempt from the hardships that carbon rationing will cause.

Human emissions of CO2, which account for 3 percent of the CO2 in atmosphere, may not have caused the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 levels. It is a reasonable hypothesis, but it has not been tested. Habibullo Abdussamatov postulates a different cause for the rise in CO2 levels: “Increased solar irradiance warms Earth’s oceans, which then triggers the emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. So the common view that man’s industrial activity is a deciding factor in global warming has emerged from a misinterpretation of cause and effect relations.” Whichever way it has happened plants thrive with rising CO2 levels. Studies show that plants and trees raise their productivity by 30-80 percent when the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is doubled from 300 to 600 ppmv. Orange trees produce twice as many oranges. Satellite observations from 1982 to 1999 show that global vegetation increased more than 6 percent.

The Environmental establishment is able to ignore these benefits, but the Solar/Cosmic Ray Theory of climate change is another matter, particularly when validated by the CLOUD experiment. It is a paradigm shift that will topple the charade of human-caused warming. Vested interests will fight it. Too much money, power, and control are at stake.

Claims of warming due to human production of CO2 are supported only by its association with a recent rise in temperatures and on global climate models, which fail to account for past climate changes and whose future predictions have yet to be verified. Experimental evidence and empirical observations of past global warming and cooling events underpin the Solar/Cosmic Ray Theory of climate change.

One hopes that science will prevail. It is the only way people can prevent the climate alarmists, backed by the media and the state, from carrying out their plan to “save the planet.” If not stopped, they will eventually establish global governance; dismantle modern technology; cripple industry; impose carbon rationing with radical reductions in the average American’s standard of living and quality of life; and inflict untold misery, suffering, and death for hundreds of millions of people around the world.

 The Variable Energy Output of the Sun Appears to Be the Major Determinant of Decadal- to Millennial-Scale Global Climate Change

So how do the small changes in solar radiation inferred from the cosmogenic nuclide variations bring about such significant and pervasive shifts in earth’s global climate?  In answer to this question, which has long plagued proponents of a solar-climate link, Bond et al. describe a scenario whereby solar-induced changes high in the stratosphere are propagated downward through the atmosphere to the earth’s surface, where they likely provoke changes in North Atlantic Deep Water formation that alter the global Thermohaline Circulation.  In light of the plausibility of this scenario, they suggest that “the solar signals thus may have been transmitted through the deep ocean as well as through the atmosphere, further contributing to their amplification and global imprint.”Concluding their landmark paper, the authors say the results of their study “demonstrate that the earth’s climate system is highly sensitive to extremely weak perturbations in the sun’s energy output,” noting that their work “supports the presumption that solar variability will continue to influence climate in the future.”  It is readily evident, therefore, that the study of Bond et al. provides ample ammunition for defending the premise that the global warming of the past century or so may well have been nothing more than the solar-mediated recovery of the earth from the chilly conditions of the most recent Little Ice Age, and that any further warming of the planet that might occur would likely be nothing more than a continuation of the same solar-mediated cycle that is destined to usher the globe into the next Medieval-like or Modern Warm Period.  Consequently, since there’s plenty of precedence for this scenario – it’s happened over and over for more than a million years – and none for a warming of the planet as a consequence of atmospheric CO2 enrichment (see CO2-Temperature Correlations in our Subject Index), it would seem the height of folly to implement any energy policy that would restrict anthropogenic CO2 emissions for the avowed purpose of attempting to prevent future global warming.  It’s not CO2 that’s been causing the earth to warm.  It’s the sun!

Climate debate far from over, claim senators


By Tim Shipman
Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 23/12/2007 

More than 400 scientists have in the past year alone challenged claims that global warming is caused by man, according to a report published last week by some of President George W Bush’s allies in the US Senate.